2 ms·
What's notable here is that the discount is from a 2006 sale. I've seen previous ~90% valuation declines but based on sales far more recent. Chicago, 90% decl
by dredmorbius 2y ago
What's notable here is that the discount is from a 2006 sale.
I've seen previous ~90% valuation declines but based on sales far more recent.
Chicago, 90% decline 2013 -- 2024: <https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate/office-building-near-willis-tower-sold-fire-sale-price https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate/offic...>
San Francisco, 90% decline 2016 -- 2024: <https://sfist.com/2024/04/23/empty-office-building-at-sixth-and-market-which-last-sold-for-62-million-now-sells-for-just-6-5-million/ https://sfist.com/2024/04/23/empty-office-building-at-sixth-...>
The impact of a 90% devaluation of the CMB (commercial mortgage-backed) securities market will have an immense impact on bank and investor balance sheets, which brings to mind the 2007-8 residential real estate crash and financial crisis.
Total present commercial mortgage valuation is about $3.6 trillion if I'm reading things correctly:
<https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1rCDW https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1rCDW>
- paxys 2y ago2006 was very close to the peak of the pre-2008 real estate bubble, so the inflated price makes sense. It would IMO have been more noteworthy had the purchase date been 2009-2014, because that's when the values were more "real".