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From the linked twitter thread https://xcancel.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1821674989021450648 https://xcancel.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1821674989021450648 > Whi

by wumeow 2y ago

From the linked twitter thread https://xcancel.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1821674989021450648 https://xcancel.com/LeoLabs_Space/status/1821674989021450648 > While Russia and the U.S. have improved their “rocket body abandonment behavior” over the last 20 years, the relative contribution by other countries has grown by a factor of five and China by 50x. https://amostech.com/TechnicalPapers/2023/Poster/McKnight.pdf https://amostech.com/TechnicalPapers/2023/Poster/McKnight.pd... page 12 > China has contributed as much mass of abandoned rocket bodies in the last 20 years as Russia, US, and Rest of World combined. > Over the last 20 years, China has abandoned nearly four times the rocket body mass in LEO compared to the US. > The average rocket body mass for China on-orbit in LEO is over 2,700 kg while the US is less than 1,000 kg and Russia is less than 1,800 kg. These larger individual masses pose a greater fragment production level if they are involved in a catastrophic collision Not good stewards.

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aragonite 2y ago
I was curious why those tweets only compared rate of contribution. From the PDF source: > Prior to 2003, Russia and the United States were responsible for 97% of the mass of rocket bodies abandoned in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since 2003, China and the Rest of the World are responsible for 68% of the rocket body mass abandoned in LEO. As a matter of fact, these trends over the last 20 years have resulted in China and the US now having roughly the same amount of rocket body mass in LEO. Russia is still responsible for half of the rocket body mass in LEO, down from ¾ of the total mass in LEO as of 2003. The rate that China is leaving abandoned rocket bodies in orbit reverses the improved behavior of US and Russia and results in a continual accumulation of objects that will be especially prolific in creating fragments if involved in a collision. So if I read it right, in absolute terms Russia still has about 50%, and US and China each about 25%, of the LEO abandoned rocket body mass.
- wumeow 2y ago
  Yes, China has put the same amount of junk in space in 20 years that the US did in 60, and it isn't slowing down.

by wumeow 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

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aragonite 2y ago

I was curious why those tweets only compared rate of contribution. From the PDF source: > Prior to 2003, Russia and the United States were responsible for 97% of the mass of rocket bodies abandoned in low Earth orbit (LEO). Since 2003, China and the Rest of the World are responsible for 68% of the rocket body mass abandoned in LEO. As a matter of fact, these trends over the last 20 years have resulted in China and the US now having roughly the same amount of rocket body mass in LEO. Russia is still responsible for half of the rocket body mass in LEO, down from ¾ of the total mass in LEO as of 2003. The rate that China is leaving abandoned rocket bodies in orbit reverses the improved behavior of US and Russia and results in a continual accumulation of objects that will be especially prolific in creating fragments if involved in a collision. So if I read it right, in absolute terms Russia still has about 50%, and US and China each about 25%, of the LEO abandoned rocket body mass.

wumeow 2y ago
Yes, China has put the same amount of junk in space in 20 years that the US did in 60, and it isn't slowing down.