6 ms·

Solar energy breakthrough could reduce need for solar farms

57 points by Kaibeezy 2y ago

adrianN 2y ago
Unless this is also cheaper than traditional panels it will probably limited to niche markets. There is plenty of space to put solar panels already.
- katzinsky 2y ago
  I live on solar power and would definitely pay a premium for fewer solar panels that produce the same amount of power. There's a tropical storm coming through and I just had to pull them all down. I'm going to have to put them all back on Saturday. Plus having the space back would be nice.
- toddmorey 2y ago
  From the article: “the researchers believe their approach will continue to reduce the cost of solar and also make it the most sustainable form of renewable energy.”
  - misja111 2y ago
    And also from the article: "We believe that, over time, this approach could enable the photovoltaic devices to achieve far greater efficiencies, exceeding 45%" So that's a lot more than the current solar panels.
- reportingsjr 2y ago
  On the flip side, I think if they can make slightly more expensive panels with technologies like perovskites, but they are significantly more efficient, they will gain a lot of market share. The solar panels themselves have become an minor portion of the cost of an install. At this point, the land area and labor install costs have become massive. If you can counter this with panels that are 25% more efficient than current commercialized panels and only 20% more expensive, you need to pay for much less area and labor to install and maintain them. Could be a huge win overall.
- fulafel 2y ago
  Several other components of solar investment cost, beside land cost, scale with nr of panels. (Installation work, scaffolding, transport logistics, wiring, etc)
- throwaway4aday 2y ago
  Manufactured products only get cheaper by scaling and improving the manufacturing process. You should know this because it's the reason why silicon photovoltaics have gotten cheaper after starting at some rather eye watering prices. Land is a finite resource with an extremely complex system of regulations, laws, ownership, uses and speculation built up over 10,000 years of history and any conversion of land for one purpose necessarily excludes it for many other purposes so there is massive competition over prime real-estate and many un-intended future consequences resulting from development. Not worrying about land use when it comes to power generation is very, very much like not worrying about carbon emissions when it comes to power generation/transport/manufacturing "The atmosphere is enormous! Why should we worry about emissions when our current demand for power and transport is so tiny?"
  - adrianN 2y ago
    If we covered the land we currently use to grow ethanol with panels we would be mostly done with the generation part of the energy transformation. Prime real estate is valuable, but there is a lot of nonprime space. Panels have a limited lifetime. If in the future we figure that land becomes more valuable for some reason we can still replace them.
phtrivier 2y ago
Is anyone keeping a track of those "breakthrough" articles in the "breakthrough-y" topics (energy generation / storage, AI, autonomous vehicles, cancer treatment, etc...), with a timeline of "where are 10 / 20 / 30 years later" ? I don't mean that in a snarky way - it's perfectly normal that not all innovations bear their fruits, that industrialization is harder than expected, etc... Even if only a fraction of them work, it's called progress. But I'm curious to know if someone compiles this kind of list.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago
  It depends a lot on context. For example perovskites, which are the focus of this article have gone from having 3% conversion efficiency to 25% efficiency in the last 15 years. That's amazing progress in the lab but deployment into standard PV markets is effectively zero. This might change this year, hence articles about deployment, but still only 1GW or so predicted this year. And even that is "just" tandem cells where you have a layer of standard PV and perovskites working together. Some of the real sci-fi possibilities of perovskites are of being able to print them easily and cheaply onto flexible lightweight structures entering whole new markets. But with wider context, it's weird this gets brought up so often in regards to solar PV and batteries which may actually be two of the most impactful technical revolutions in human history, totally reshaping the whole world right now at a breathtaking speed that surprises even enthusiasts that are paying attention.
  - Lutger 2y ago
    First patents on solar energy were granted in 1860s. First solar panels were created in 1883. It wasn't so long ago - I still remember - that everybody thought solar energy would stay way too expensive and would never compete with coal or gas, and look what happened.
    - EricE 2y ago
      Solar doesn't compete with coal or gas - it's still not reliable enough to replace base load requirements, and skewed economics around solar have killed new or replacement base load projects. Indeed, the California and Texas screwed up politics and economics are chief contributors to their power instability. My favorite is in CA - mandatory switch to electric cars then ban people from charging them due to electricity shortages. You can't make this stuff up.
dwighttk 2y ago
“Could” in headline Put out by the PR wing of the researcher’s university I give it a 1% chance
- Dalewyn 2y ago
  Not even 1% because of Jevons Paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
- dailykoder 2y ago
  Sounds very good to me. No one knows what the breakthrough technology will be, but if we don't try, we'll never find out. Either there will be a breakthrough with impact like the iphone or it'll just be gradual progress over the next decades. As long as we have progress, it's a good thing
ThomPete 2y ago
"could" = "news making" not "news reporting" In other words this is pure speculation.
passwordoops 2y ago
One post-doc did it once in one University research lab. And even then, how many attempts did it take, how reliable and reproducible is there process, and what was the degree of cherry-picking? Interesting? Sure! But let me know after it's been reliably reproduced a few times by other groups
chr1 2y ago
If such thin perovskites ever become cheap and stable enough, they will allow creating autonomous, hydrogen filled, cargo transporter dirigibles, which could be faster and cheaper replacement for trucks.
jl6 2y ago
University PR is not generally to be trusted, but if we give them the benefit of the doubt, how exactly would their “paint it onto a rucksack” idea work? Where does the electricity come out?
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
PaulKeeble 2y ago
The main issue with perovskites so far has been robustness. They don't tend to last very long in the sun.
- misja111 2y ago
  Aren't current solar panels using perovskites as well?
  - louwrentius 2y ago
    No they are not.
JoeAltmaier 2y ago
Its another solar film. Nothing to do with 'reduce the need for solar farms' - that's nonsense that gets tacked onto any article about cheaper panels.
- throwaway4220 2y ago
  Thank you for saying this I thought I was going crazy
donatzsky 2y ago
Here's the Ars Technica coverage of this and another paper: https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/continued-progress-with-dual-layer-solar-cells/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/continued-progress-w...

57 points by Kaibeezy 2y ago

Unless this is also cheaper than traditional panels it will probably limited to niche markets. There is plenty of space to put solar panels already.

katzinsky 2y ago
I live on solar power and would definitely pay a premium for fewer solar panels that produce the same amount of power. There's a tropical storm coming through and I just had to pull them all down. I'm going to have to put them all back on Saturday. Plus having the space back would be nice.
toddmorey 2y ago
From the article: “the researchers believe their approach will continue to reduce the cost of solar and also make it the most sustainable form of renewable energy.”
- misja111 2y ago
  And also from the article: "We believe that, over time, this approach could enable the photovoltaic devices to achieve far greater efficiencies, exceeding 45%" So that's a lot more than the current solar panels.
reportingsjr 2y ago
On the flip side, I think if they can make slightly more expensive panels with technologies like perovskites, but they are significantly more efficient, they will gain a lot of market share. The solar panels themselves have become an minor portion of the cost of an install. At this point, the land area and labor install costs have become massive. If you can counter this with panels that are 25% more efficient than current commercialized panels and only 20% more expensive, you need to pay for much less area and labor to install and maintain them. Could be a huge win overall.
fulafel 2y ago
Several other components of solar investment cost, beside land cost, scale with nr of panels. (Installation work, scaffolding, transport logistics, wiring, etc)
throwaway4aday 2y ago
Manufactured products only get cheaper by scaling and improving the manufacturing process. You should know this because it's the reason why silicon photovoltaics have gotten cheaper after starting at some rather eye watering prices. Land is a finite resource with an extremely complex system of regulations, laws, ownership, uses and speculation built up over 10,000 years of history and any conversion of land for one purpose necessarily excludes it for many other purposes so there is massive competition over prime real-estate and many un-intended future consequences resulting from development. Not worrying about land use when it comes to power generation is very, very much like not worrying about carbon emissions when it comes to power generation/transport/manufacturing "The atmosphere is enormous! Why should we worry about emissions when our current demand for power and transport is so tiny?"
- adrianN 2y ago
  If we covered the land we currently use to grow ethanol with panels we would be mostly done with the generation part of the energy transformation. Prime real estate is valuable, but there is a lot of nonprime space. Panels have a limited lifetime. If in the future we figure that land becomes more valuable for some reason we can still replace them.

phtrivier 2y ago

Is anyone keeping a track of those "breakthrough" articles in the "breakthrough-y" topics (energy generation / storage, AI, autonomous vehicles, cancer treatment, etc...), with a timeline of "where are 10 / 20 / 30 years later" ? I don't mean that in a snarky way - it's perfectly normal that not all innovations bear their fruits, that industrialization is harder than expected, etc... Even if only a fraction of them work, it's called progress. But I'm curious to know if someone compiles this kind of list.

ZeroGravitas 2y ago
It depends a lot on context. For example perovskites, which are the focus of this article have gone from having 3% conversion efficiency to 25% efficiency in the last 15 years. That's amazing progress in the lab but deployment into standard PV markets is effectively zero. This might change this year, hence articles about deployment, but still only 1GW or so predicted this year. And even that is "just" tandem cells where you have a layer of standard PV and perovskites working together. Some of the real sci-fi possibilities of perovskites are of being able to print them easily and cheaply onto flexible lightweight structures entering whole new markets. But with wider context, it's weird this gets brought up so often in regards to solar PV and batteries which may actually be two of the most impactful technical revolutions in human history, totally reshaping the whole world right now at a breathtaking speed that surprises even enthusiasts that are paying attention.
- Lutger 2y ago
  First patents on solar energy were granted in 1860s. First solar panels were created in 1883. It wasn't so long ago - I still remember - that everybody thought solar energy would stay way too expensive and would never compete with coal or gas, and look what happened.
  - EricE 2y ago
    Solar doesn't compete with coal or gas - it's still not reliable enough to replace base load requirements, and skewed economics around solar have killed new or replacement base load projects. Indeed, the California and Texas screwed up politics and economics are chief contributors to their power instability. My favorite is in CA - mandatory switch to electric cars then ban people from charging them due to electricity shortages. You can't make this stuff up.

dwighttk 2y ago

“Could” in headline Put out by the PR wing of the researcher’s university I give it a 1% chance

Dalewyn 2y ago
Not even 1% because of Jevons Paradox. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
dailykoder 2y ago
Sounds very good to me. No one knows what the breakthrough technology will be, but if we don't try, we'll never find out. Either there will be a breakthrough with impact like the iphone or it'll just be gradual progress over the next decades. As long as we have progress, it's a good thing

ThomPete 2y ago

"could" = "news making" not "news reporting" In other words this is pure speculation.

passwordoops 2y ago

One post-doc did it once in one University research lab. And even then, how many attempts did it take, how reliable and reproducible is there process, and what was the degree of cherry-picking? Interesting? Sure! But let me know after it's been reliably reproduced a few times by other groups

chr1 2y ago

If such thin perovskites ever become cheap and stable enough, they will allow creating autonomous, hydrogen filled, cargo transporter dirigibles, which could be faster and cheaper replacement for trucks.

jl6 2y ago

University PR is not generally to be trusted, but if we give them the benefit of the doubt, how exactly would their “paint it onto a rucksack” idea work? Where does the electricity come out?

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

PaulKeeble 2y ago

The main issue with perovskites so far has been robustness. They don't tend to last very long in the sun.

misja111 2y ago
Aren't current solar panels using perovskites as well?
- louwrentius 2y ago
  No they are not.

JoeAltmaier 2y ago

Its another solar film. Nothing to do with 'reduce the need for solar farms' - that's nonsense that gets tacked onto any article about cheaper panels.

throwaway4220 2y ago
Thank you for saying this I thought I was going crazy

donatzsky 2y ago

Here's the Ars Technica coverage of this and another paper: https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/continued-progress-with-dual-layer-solar-cells/ https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/08/continued-progress-w...