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A few guesses. Disrupt supples into Donbas by taking over the train lines. Capture large number of untrained and unmotivated conscripts that are currently sur

A few guesses. Disrupt supples into Donbas by taking over the train lines. Capture large number of untrained and unmotivated conscripts that are currently surrendering in large numbers. It's easier to travel in Russia than in the heavily mined occupied Ukraine. Maybe they're taking the long way round? Force a buffer zone. Russia has been using scorched earth tactics in occupied Ukraine, maybe they'll be less willing on their own land? Additional chips to prevent Russia from insisting on freezing the borders along occupied lands (you take our land, we take yours) during rumoured ceasefire negotiations. Land swap negotiations.

jncfhnb 2y ago
Like 40 guys have surrendered. Not meaningful. It seems unlikely that they can hold any of this territory. They have no supply lines.
- jajag 2y ago
  It's quite a bit more than that. I've seen reports of 40-50 surrendering in just one location alone - smaller numbers in multiple reports from other locations.
  - jncfhnb 2y ago
    I find that tricky to believe. This is a fast operation that is probably quite a bit smaller than the Russians are claiming (they claim 1000 guys). I don’t think Ukraine is going to have the manpower to collect a significant number of prisoners even if they are surrendering.
    - jajag 2y ago
      For what it's worth: https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1821274958879977633 https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1821274958879977633 https://x.com/Tendar/status/1821222650191982674 https://x.com/Tendar/status/1821222650191982674 https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821219526668898710 https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821219526668898710 https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1821218979811119558 https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1821218979811119558 Yes I agree, this has to be a limited Ukrainian operation, but the short term impact is still considerable. What the long term goal is, who knows.
      - jncfhnb 2y ago
        The numbers I’m seeing now are about 300 prisoners, which seems believable now that Ukraine seems to be doing a ridiculous number of soldiers into Russia
euroderf 2y ago
> Additional chips to prevent Russia from insisting on freezing the borders along occupied lands (you take our land, we take yours) during rumoured ceasefire negotiations. I like this one. Negate a freeze as a negotiating proposal.

jncfhnb 2y ago

Like 40 guys have surrendered. Not meaningful. It seems unlikely that they can hold any of this territory. They have no supply lines.

jajag 2y ago
It's quite a bit more than that. I've seen reports of 40-50 surrendering in just one location alone - smaller numbers in multiple reports from other locations.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  I find that tricky to believe. This is a fast operation that is probably quite a bit smaller than the Russians are claiming (they claim 1000 guys). I don’t think Ukraine is going to have the manpower to collect a significant number of prisoners even if they are surrendering.
  - jajag 2y ago
    For what it's worth: https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1821274958879977633 https://x.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1821274958879977633 https://x.com/Tendar/status/1821222650191982674 https://x.com/Tendar/status/1821222650191982674 https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821219526668898710 https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1821219526668898710 https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1821218979811119558 https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1821218979811119558 Yes I agree, this has to be a limited Ukrainian operation, but the short term impact is still considerable. What the long term goal is, who knows.
    - jncfhnb 2y ago
      The numbers I’m seeing now are about 300 prisoners, which seems believable now that Ukraine seems to be doing a ridiculous number of soldiers into Russia

euroderf 2y ago

> Additional chips to prevent Russia from insisting on freezing the borders along occupied lands (you take our land, we take yours) during rumoured ceasefire negotiations. I like this one. Negate a freeze as a negotiating proposal.