5 ms·

That's probably not the correct analysis, because the number you're trying to estimate is not P(a crime occurs near you), it's P(you will personally be the vict

That's probably not the correct analysis, because the number you're trying to estimate is not P(a crime occurs near you), it's P(you will personally be the victim of a crime). Crime rate over density won't necessarily do that either (since the population density of a primarily commercial+touristy area, e.g. Fisherman's Wharf, is << the number of people who are present there on a given day), but neither does raw count.

mh- 2y ago
I mean, I'd also be pretty interested in avoiding P(a crime occurs near you), especially as a tourist.
- chatmasta 2y ago
  Yeah there are only 24 hours in a day, so the right metric might be density of crimes in an area per hour. Even if I’m not the victim of a robbery, I don’t really want to be watching it from across the street.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > I'd also be pretty interested in avoiding P(a crime occurs near you), especially as a tourist What counts as nearby also scales with density. Down the street is nearby in the suburbs. In New York the next avenue block may as well be another town.
davedx 2y ago
As a tourist in SF recently I was interested in seeing the whole city, warts and all, and I did. I don't really understand why as a tourist you'd want to use this map for a short trip, unless you were going somewhere that's a literal war zone. Most cities just aren't statistically dangerous for a tourist unless you go out looking for trouble. You're much better off applying common sense than digging through digital maps of (reported) crimes. If I was looking for somewhere to live then it would be more interesting I think.
- Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
  I dunno, I'd think car break-ins would at least be a very important statistic. My wife and I will be spending a day in the Fisherman's Wharf area, and the statistics on car break-ins has me concerned, though a co-worker who lives in the Bay told me that if I'm parked in a parking garage, it's less likely I'll be a victim, as it's harder to smash-and-grab-and-go when you have to deal with a parking gate.
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    if you’re really worried, don’t leave anything in your car and don’t lock it
    - itsyaboi 2y ago
      I don't understand this advice. Are you suggesting that if you make it easier for thieves to break into your car, they are less likely to damage it?
      - whimsicalism 2y ago
        yes and also do not leave anything in your car
  - davedx 2y ago
    Yeah we parked across from the Exploratorium near there for several hours and it was fine, I didn’t think to consult crime heat maps before visiting, just followed standard common sense of not leaving visible ipads etc in the car. What is the actual car break in statistic there?
- almogo 2y ago
  This seems like the best use-case, finding a place to live in a city. As a SF-area resident I know the Tenderloin is a no-go zone, but besides that not much. This is a good tool to see which neighborhoods to focus my search on in the apartment-finding process.
- 2y ago

mh- 2y ago

I mean, I'd also be pretty interested in avoiding P(a crime occurs near you), especially as a tourist.

chatmasta 2y ago
Yeah there are only 24 hours in a day, so the right metric might be density of crimes in an area per hour. Even if I’m not the victim of a robbery, I don’t really want to be watching it from across the street.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> I'd also be pretty interested in avoiding P(a crime occurs near you), especially as a tourist What counts as nearby also scales with density. Down the street is nearby in the suburbs. In New York the next avenue block may as well be another town.

davedx 2y ago

As a tourist in SF recently I was interested in seeing the whole city, warts and all, and I did. I don't really understand why as a tourist you'd want to use this map for a short trip, unless you were going somewhere that's a literal war zone. Most cities just aren't statistically dangerous for a tourist unless you go out looking for trouble. You're much better off applying common sense than digging through digital maps of (reported) crimes. If I was looking for somewhere to live then it would be more interesting I think.

Sohcahtoa82 2y ago
I dunno, I'd think car break-ins would at least be a very important statistic. My wife and I will be spending a day in the Fisherman's Wharf area, and the statistics on car break-ins has me concerned, though a co-worker who lives in the Bay told me that if I'm parked in a parking garage, it's less likely I'll be a victim, as it's harder to smash-and-grab-and-go when you have to deal with a parking gate.
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  if you’re really worried, don’t leave anything in your car and don’t lock it
  - itsyaboi 2y ago
    I don't understand this advice. Are you suggesting that if you make it easier for thieves to break into your car, they are less likely to damage it?
    - whimsicalism 2y ago
      yes and also do not leave anything in your car
- davedx 2y ago
  Yeah we parked across from the Exploratorium near there for several hours and it was fine, I didn’t think to consult crime heat maps before visiting, just followed standard common sense of not leaving visible ipads etc in the car. What is the actual car break in statistic there?
almogo 2y ago
This seems like the best use-case, finding a place to live in a city. As a SF-area resident I know the Tenderloin is a no-go zone, but besides that not much. This is a good tool to see which neighborhoods to focus my search on in the apartment-finding process.
2y ago