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Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan

11 points by johntfella 2y ago

nkurz 2y ago
The reasons given that an invasion would be difficult for China seem reasonable, but I'm bothered that it seems to assume "unifying" with Taiwan would require a land invasion. Given Taiwan's dependence on imports, it seems more likely that China would blockade the island. From a quick read, the article never even mentions this possibility. Why wouldn't they at least wave at this possibility? Here's an article from last December that gives what I feel is a better explanation: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/a-maritime-blockade-of-taiwan-by-the-peoples-republic-of-china-a-strategy-to-defeat-fear-and-coercion/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-coun...
- mojomark 2y ago
  What difference does it make? A blockade is an act of war, regardless. Also, a blockade can jeopardize human life just as much as an invasion. Only "civilized" thing to do is to let sovereign states live as they want (so long as they aren't harming people) and enjoy their sovereignty. I suppose the definition of "harming people" is debatable and part of the challenge, generally speaking. However, in the case of Taiwan, I think it's pretty clear that this is just a national pride/greed based expansion prospect, and they are willing to sacrifice/oppress human lives out of that pride and greed. Humans suck.
  - markus_zhang 2y ago
    Yeah humans suck. No state would allow a thorn in their side. It's just when.
  - etempleton 2y ago
    From an external and internal relations standpoint it makes a pretty big difference. A blockade avoids many if not all sanctions and reduces the likelihood that they lose trade partners. With that said, I am not sure China would really be able to enforce a full naval blockade either. What happens when the US Pacific Fleet comes through?
    - more_corn 2y ago
      Yeah, us support would make a blockade useless. The us military would like nothing more than to show up as heros dropping supplies throughout the island defending Taiwan without firing a shot.
      - maxglute 2y ago
        US military not remotely capable of breaking a PRC blockade off her shores (mines, destroyed airfields).
    - maxglute 2y ago
      >What happens when the US Pacific Fleet comes through It wouldn't, 7th fleet would be going full speed the east of wake to get outside of PRC A2D2 bubble.
- dzonga 2y ago
  was just about to say the same thing. till I saw your comment. they don't need to invade. they just need to blockade taiwan. lay a long siege. you don't invade island nations. costly, unwinnable affair. however, if you can lay a siege - then the odds change. I lived in taiwan for about a year.

11 points by johntfella 2y ago

The reasons given that an invasion would be difficult for China seem reasonable, but I'm bothered that it seems to assume "unifying" with Taiwan would require a land invasion. Given Taiwan's dependence on imports, it seems more likely that China would blockade the island. From a quick read, the article never even mentions this possibility. Why wouldn't they at least wave at this possibility? Here's an article from last December that gives what I feel is a better explanation: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/a-maritime-blockade-of-taiwan-by-the-peoples-republic-of-china-a-strategy-to-defeat-fear-and-coercion/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-coun...

mojomark 2y ago
What difference does it make? A blockade is an act of war, regardless. Also, a blockade can jeopardize human life just as much as an invasion. Only "civilized" thing to do is to let sovereign states live as they want (so long as they aren't harming people) and enjoy their sovereignty. I suppose the definition of "harming people" is debatable and part of the challenge, generally speaking. However, in the case of Taiwan, I think it's pretty clear that this is just a national pride/greed based expansion prospect, and they are willing to sacrifice/oppress human lives out of that pride and greed. Humans suck.
- markus_zhang 2y ago
  Yeah humans suck. No state would allow a thorn in their side. It's just when.
- etempleton 2y ago
  From an external and internal relations standpoint it makes a pretty big difference. A blockade avoids many if not all sanctions and reduces the likelihood that they lose trade partners. With that said, I am not sure China would really be able to enforce a full naval blockade either. What happens when the US Pacific Fleet comes through?
  - more_corn 2y ago
    Yeah, us support would make a blockade useless. The us military would like nothing more than to show up as heros dropping supplies throughout the island defending Taiwan without firing a shot.
    - maxglute 2y ago
      US military not remotely capable of breaking a PRC blockade off her shores (mines, destroyed airfields).
  - maxglute 2y ago
    >What happens when the US Pacific Fleet comes through It wouldn't, 7th fleet would be going full speed the east of wake to get outside of PRC A2D2 bubble.
dzonga 2y ago
was just about to say the same thing. till I saw your comment. they don't need to invade. they just need to blockade taiwan. lay a long siege. you don't invade island nations. costly, unwinnable affair. however, if you can lay a siege - then the odds change. I lived in taiwan for about a year.