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>>>Russian planning for the invasion began around the time of the retreat. Do you have a source for that? I'd love to read any insight into that process. My p
by CapricornNoble 2y ago
>>>Russian planning for the invasion began around the time of the retreat.
Do you have a source for that? I'd love to read any insight into that process.
My personal, totally unsubstantiated, opinion is that Russia began planning an invasion in 2019 after Poroshenko signed a Constitutional Amendment pledging Ukraine to seek NATO membership, which was followed up by Zelensky promising a NATO referendum the same year.[1][2]
I suspect Putin initiated planning but was unprepared for anything prior to mid-2020....and then invasion planning was derailed by COVID. Forces couldn't be postured until they got that mess under control, and then you also need a big annual exercise as pretext for moving that much combat power into their assembly areas. Hmmmm....I need to go back and take a hard look at the early force flows, as well as Russian rhetoric in response to the 2019 political decisions by Ukraine.
[1] https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-signs-constitutional-amendment-on-nato-eu-membership/29779430.html https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-signs-constitution...
[2] https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-promises-nato-referendum-as-part-of-path-to-west/29982943.html https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-president-promises-nato-refe...
- baybal2 2y ago[dead]