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The models do not account for attack drones which kills most Russian soldiers these days. They also do not account that due to observation drone presence attack

The models do not account for attack drones which kills most Russian soldiers these days. They also do not account that due to observation drone presence attacking leads to greater losses.

CapricornNoble 2y ago
>>The models do not account for attack drones which kills most Russian soldiers these days. If you have data that reliably attributes Russian casualties to the weapon systems causing them, I'd love to see it. I know that Twitter and Tiktok are chock full of Ukrainian "drone drop" videos but again that is part of the information operations and shouldn't be taken as an accurate reflection of the battlespace writ large. That said....if they were killing >500 Russians daily with drones, which almost all have recordable video footage, we should be seeing maybe 10x as much footage as is getting released. One work-around would be to find the most appropriate weapon system that IS in the model and see if it could cover FPV drones. I think QJM aggregates weapons systems but goes down to the squad level, so maybe it accounts for specialized infantry tasks like snipers. Insert a weapon into the model that is a "sniper" but with a 10km effective range. Then run the numbers again. That still ignores the effects of Russian EW but hey...this is an iterative process.
- fpoling 2y ago
  There are reports that drone loss for Ukraine is like 3-5 drones per a successful attack. There are also reports that Ukraine carries like 4000 daily drone flights. It is not clear how may of those are for observations and how many are for attacks. If one assumes that there 3000 attack flights and 600 reach the target, it can easily explain 50% of Russian losses. In addition a sniper is a bad analogy. The drone warhead is at least a hand-grenade useful against hard targets. A better analogy would be a guided light artillery shell if such exists in models.
  - CapricornNoble 2y ago
    Hmmmm, I'll look for an approximation of a laser-guided 60mm mortar.

The models do not account for attack drones which kills most Russian soldiers these days. They also do not account that due to observation drone presence attacking leads to greater losses.

CapricornNoble 2y ago

>>The models do not account for attack drones which kills most Russian soldiers these days. If you have data that reliably attributes Russian casualties to the weapon systems causing them, I'd love to see it. I know that Twitter and Tiktok are chock full of Ukrainian "drone drop" videos but again that is part of the information operations and shouldn't be taken as an accurate reflection of the battlespace writ large. That said....if they were killing >500 Russians daily with drones, which almost all have recordable video footage, we should be seeing maybe 10x as much footage as is getting released. One work-around would be to find the most appropriate weapon system that IS in the model and see if it could cover FPV drones. I think QJM aggregates weapons systems but goes down to the squad level, so maybe it accounts for specialized infantry tasks like snipers. Insert a weapon into the model that is a "sniper" but with a 10km effective range. Then run the numbers again. That still ignores the effects of Russian EW but hey...this is an iterative process.

fpoling 2y ago
There are reports that drone loss for Ukraine is like 3-5 drones per a successful attack. There are also reports that Ukraine carries like 4000 daily drone flights. It is not clear how may of those are for observations and how many are for attacks. If one assumes that there 3000 attack flights and 600 reach the target, it can easily explain 50% of Russian losses. In addition a sniper is a bad analogy. The drone warhead is at least a hand-grenade useful against hard targets. A better analogy would be a guided light artillery shell if such exists in models.
- CapricornNoble 2y ago
  Hmmmm, I'll look for an approximation of a laser-guided 60mm mortar.