4 ms·

$1T wipeout: Market rout punishes mega-cap tech

38 points by ortusdux 2y ago

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
skybrian 2y ago
Best time to buy in a few months, but maybe the sale isn’t over yet?
- orev 2y ago
  It would have been, if all the major trading platforms weren’t having technical issues and nobody could login. They’re starting to get resolved now, but people missed out on a 3% increase by the time they did.
  - consumer451 2y ago
    It would be interesting to see a list of which platforms failed, and which ones did not. Anecdotally, I read comments saying that "my adult brokerages are failing, but Robinhood is working."
    - rty32 2y ago
      It's pretty straightforward -- in the US, both Schwab and Fidelity were down, with Fidelity back around 10am ET and Schwab around 1pm ET
  - slowmovintarget 2y ago
    The tinfoil-hat-wearing part of my brain is saying there's a button these companies push to ensure that "ordinary people" get locked out of trade opportunities arising from such volatility. It's certainly more likely it's unusual load knocking the services down. ("Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence.")
- BenoitP 2y ago
  They do have a saying about catching a falling knife at Wall Street. This is definitely not my expertise though, I'll let others comment.
  - more_corn 2y ago
    What’s the wall street saying? The only one I know is that a falling knife has no handle. I’m curious if wall street traders think they can do it.
    - readthenotes1 2y ago
      It's the flip side of btfd. If you catch a falling knife (buy an asset whose price is falling dramatically fast) there's a chance that you'll get cut deep
      - amy-petrik-214 2y ago
        Other thing said to me by then-CEO of Goldman (during my new trader / out of school training months / Goldman onboarding), he said "there's 3 ways of making it in this business: be smarter, be first, or cheat. Now, I don't cheat. And although I like to think we have a lot of pretty smart people in this building, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first. "
- caeril 2y ago
  The Schiller PE Ratio hit 36.1 3 weeks ago, with an EFFR of 5.33% (!) It's still 33.6, and the historical average is 17.1, with an average EFFR of 4.61% And the historical average didn't even have the (slight) headwind of boomer retirement plan liquidations that we have now. So yeah, there's a long way to go.
  - myth_drannon 2y ago
    I have been reading about it back since from 2009-2010's and Zerohedge glory times.
  - readthenotes1 2y ago
    Redo your numbers leaving out the years before stock buybacks became legal. You'll get different answers (though we are still in wtf territory)
glzone1 2y ago
Be interesting to see what happens if/when the Fed cuts rates a bit, through they will remain relatively high compared to zero interest rate land. One one hand the economics feels very uncertain and feels like things could fall apart a bit (employment - some folks have been looking for months for a job, continued mass layoffs, some political uncertainties). I am curious how Japan was able to keep rates so low for so long - was there some thumb on scale stuff keeping them down (ie, forced buying of govt debt?)
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
Rapzid 2y ago
CNN Headlines in order: > US Markets Melt Down(this has since left front page or been renamed) > GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS ARE PLUNGING > Fear on Wall Street has reached highest level in 2 years, but some analysts think that investors are overreacting > Stocks are tumbling. But, no, America’s market is not ‘crashing’ > 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic It's been a bizarre past couple years. Out amazing attention economy has been feeding the "recession is coming" and "or is it" narratives for so long now. For clicks they are selling both the fear of recession and the hope that it's all "panic"... On the same page now! I really do wonder how much 24 hour news and social media is impacting markets. Do we just have to wait for everyone to stop clicking "the sky is falling"?
- readthenotes1 2y ago
  Funny, because they used to call big economic downturns "panics" E.g., usa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Un...

38 points by ortusdux 2y ago

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

skybrian 2y ago

Best time to buy in a few months, but maybe the sale isn’t over yet?

orev 2y ago
It would have been, if all the major trading platforms weren’t having technical issues and nobody could login. They’re starting to get resolved now, but people missed out on a 3% increase by the time they did.
- consumer451 2y ago
  It would be interesting to see a list of which platforms failed, and which ones did not. Anecdotally, I read comments saying that "my adult brokerages are failing, but Robinhood is working."
  - rty32 2y ago
    It's pretty straightforward -- in the US, both Schwab and Fidelity were down, with Fidelity back around 10am ET and Schwab around 1pm ET
- slowmovintarget 2y ago
  The tinfoil-hat-wearing part of my brain is saying there's a button these companies push to ensure that "ordinary people" get locked out of trade opportunities arising from such volatility. It's certainly more likely it's unusual load knocking the services down. ("Never attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence.")
BenoitP 2y ago
They do have a saying about catching a falling knife at Wall Street. This is definitely not my expertise though, I'll let others comment.
- more_corn 2y ago
  What’s the wall street saying? The only one I know is that a falling knife has no handle. I’m curious if wall street traders think they can do it.
  - readthenotes1 2y ago
    It's the flip side of btfd. If you catch a falling knife (buy an asset whose price is falling dramatically fast) there's a chance that you'll get cut deep
    - amy-petrik-214 2y ago
      Other thing said to me by then-CEO of Goldman (during my new trader / out of school training months / Goldman onboarding), he said "there's 3 ways of making it in this business: be smarter, be first, or cheat. Now, I don't cheat. And although I like to think we have a lot of pretty smart people in this building, it sure is a hell of a lot easier to just be first. "
caeril 2y ago
The Schiller PE Ratio hit 36.1 3 weeks ago, with an EFFR of 5.33% (!) It's still 33.6, and the historical average is 17.1, with an average EFFR of 4.61% And the historical average didn't even have the (slight) headwind of boomer retirement plan liquidations that we have now. So yeah, there's a long way to go.
- myth_drannon 2y ago
  I have been reading about it back since from 2009-2010's and Zerohedge glory times.
- readthenotes1 2y ago
  Redo your numbers leaving out the years before stock buybacks became legal. You'll get different answers (though we are still in wtf territory)

glzone1 2y ago

Be interesting to see what happens if/when the Fed cuts rates a bit, through they will remain relatively high compared to zero interest rate land. One one hand the economics feels very uncertain and feels like things could fall apart a bit (employment - some folks have been looking for months for a job, continued mass layoffs, some political uncertainties). I am curious how Japan was able to keep rates so low for so long - was there some thumb on scale stuff keeping them down (ie, forced buying of govt debt?)

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

Rapzid 2y ago

CNN Headlines in order: > US Markets Melt Down(this has since left front page or been renamed) > GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS ARE PLUNGING > Fear on Wall Street has reached highest level in 2 years, but some analysts think that investors are overreacting > Stocks are tumbling. But, no, America’s market is not ‘crashing’ > 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic It's been a bizarre past couple years. Out amazing attention economy has been feeding the "recession is coming" and "or is it" narratives for so long now. For clicks they are selling both the fear of recession and the hope that it's all "panic"... On the same page now! I really do wonder how much 24 hour news and social media is impacting markets. Do we just have to wait for everyone to stop clicking "the sky is falling"?

readthenotes1 2y ago
Funny, because they used to call big economic downturns "panics" E.g., usa https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Un...