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South Korea is fucked if they don't change their atitude. North Korea will win the long game simply because there will be nobody left to fight at South.

Retric 2y ago
Predicting population growth out 100+ years is unlikely to be accurate. South Korea is likely to have a larger population out as far as we can reasonably predict.
- EForEndeavour 2y ago
  How far into the future do you think population growth can be reasonably predicted, and why?
  - Retric 2y ago
    It’s dependent on economics, politics, war, and immigration/refugees etc so very accurate predictions are limited to perhaps 6 months. Total population has inertia, but anything more than +/- 2% out 10 years is pushing it and that uncertainty just grows with time.
    - EForEndeavour 2y ago
      Where are you getting the specific values of 6 months and ±2% out 10 years? Genuinely curious to learn more. Maybe back-testing of archived predictions from prior decades against the eventual reality?
- whatevaa 2y ago
  At current rate South Korea will be in deep trouble in this decade, no need for 100 years. It's really bad.
- snapcaster 2y ago
  Have you seen how grim the current fertility rates are? Agreed on extrapolating outwards being iffy but this isn't a 100+ year thing. It's something happening right now
- switchbak 2y ago
  Can you give specific details/math on why you think their population would have a rebound?
  - Retric 2y ago
    Short term a lack of people can change attitude around immigration. As a wealthy country SK can definitely attract people if they choose to do so. Long term, the people born each year are children of people who decided to have kids which is counter to the overall trend in the country. There’s huge selective pressure around deciding to have kids in modern societies.
    - whatevaa 2y ago
      Increasing tax burden on young people to support old ones will discourage that. Immigration is a very dificult topic in both Japan and South Korea societies. The fact that EU is becoming increasingly anti-immigration won't help to advocate for this.
    - seoulmetro 2y ago
      Immigration is a terrible solution to a population crisis. That's like dousing an electrical fire in water. Sure, the fire might disappear for a second before it kills you.
    - switchbak 2y ago
      "Long term, the people born each year are children of people who decided to have kids". If there's far fewer parents because this cohort of potential parents is much smaller, then you have necessarily fewer children going forward. Even if you double the number of people that want kids, it becomes very hard to reverse the demographic decline, let alone grow your society. Even if you could, there's still a giant demographic hole in your population that will cause big issues over time. Outside of immigration (which is a big discussion on its own) PLUS a healthy birth rate among these immigrants, I'm unsure where your optimism comes from for them reversing their demographics and growing.
rsynnott 2y ago
... I mean, North Korea has pretty much the same population growth dynamics as South Korea, and fewer levers to meaningfully address it (in particular, South Korea can address it through immigration, whereas even if NK was willing to cope with that from an ideological PoV, it's hard to imagine it being a particularly popular destination.)
- Qem 2y ago
  According to Wikipedia, NK fertility rate is 1.91, while SK currently at 0.72. One takes log(0.05)/log(1.91/2) ~= 65 generations to reduce birth cohorts to 1/20 of the initial population size. The other does the trick in log(0.05)/log(0.72/2) ~= 3 generations.
  - rsynnott 2y ago
    Sure, but their actual population change statistics, today, are similar, presumably due to higher infant mortality (almost 10 times as high!) and lower life expectancy, NK. Like, sure, on an infinite time horizon where nothing else changes forever, you might expect NK's population to eventually exceed SK's, but even under those circumstances it won't be happening for a very long time. (In practice, you'd probably expect NK's birth rate to keep dropping, too, and SK's will eventually reach equilibrium if it hasn't already.)

Retric 2y ago

Predicting population growth out 100+ years is unlikely to be accurate. South Korea is likely to have a larger population out as far as we can reasonably predict.

EForEndeavour 2y ago
How far into the future do you think population growth can be reasonably predicted, and why?
- Retric 2y ago
  It’s dependent on economics, politics, war, and immigration/refugees etc so very accurate predictions are limited to perhaps 6 months. Total population has inertia, but anything more than +/- 2% out 10 years is pushing it and that uncertainty just grows with time.
  - EForEndeavour 2y ago
    Where are you getting the specific values of 6 months and ±2% out 10 years? Genuinely curious to learn more. Maybe back-testing of archived predictions from prior decades against the eventual reality?
whatevaa 2y ago
At current rate South Korea will be in deep trouble in this decade, no need for 100 years. It's really bad.
snapcaster 2y ago
Have you seen how grim the current fertility rates are? Agreed on extrapolating outwards being iffy but this isn't a 100+ year thing. It's something happening right now
switchbak 2y ago
Can you give specific details/math on why you think their population would have a rebound?
- Retric 2y ago
  Short term a lack of people can change attitude around immigration. As a wealthy country SK can definitely attract people if they choose to do so. Long term, the people born each year are children of people who decided to have kids which is counter to the overall trend in the country. There’s huge selective pressure around deciding to have kids in modern societies.
  - whatevaa 2y ago
    Increasing tax burden on young people to support old ones will discourage that. Immigration is a very dificult topic in both Japan and South Korea societies. The fact that EU is becoming increasingly anti-immigration won't help to advocate for this.
  - seoulmetro 2y ago
    Immigration is a terrible solution to a population crisis. That's like dousing an electrical fire in water. Sure, the fire might disappear for a second before it kills you.
  - switchbak 2y ago
    "Long term, the people born each year are children of people who decided to have kids". If there's far fewer parents because this cohort of potential parents is much smaller, then you have necessarily fewer children going forward. Even if you double the number of people that want kids, it becomes very hard to reverse the demographic decline, let alone grow your society. Even if you could, there's still a giant demographic hole in your population that will cause big issues over time. Outside of immigration (which is a big discussion on its own) PLUS a healthy birth rate among these immigrants, I'm unsure where your optimism comes from for them reversing their demographics and growing.

rsynnott 2y ago

... I mean, North Korea has pretty much the same population growth dynamics as South Korea, and fewer levers to meaningfully address it (in particular, South Korea can address it through immigration, whereas even if NK was willing to cope with that from an ideological PoV, it's hard to imagine it being a particularly popular destination.)

Qem 2y ago
According to Wikipedia, NK fertility rate is 1.91, while SK currently at 0.72. One takes log(0.05)/log(1.91/2) ~= 65 generations to reduce birth cohorts to 1/20 of the initial population size. The other does the trick in log(0.05)/log(0.72/2) ~= 3 generations.
- rsynnott 2y ago
  Sure, but their actual population change statistics, today, are similar, presumably due to higher infant mortality (almost 10 times as high!) and lower life expectancy, NK. Like, sure, on an infinite time horizon where nothing else changes forever, you might expect NK's population to eventually exceed SK's, but even under those circumstances it won't be happening for a very long time. (In practice, you'd probably expect NK's birth rate to keep dropping, too, and SK's will eventually reach equilibrium if it hasn't already.)