5 ms·

That sure will help with the Korean demographic crisis, they'll be fucking like rabbits after those long days. And they can't wait to give the same future to th

• Qem 2y ago
  Wonder if people becoming even more overworked than what they already are will manage to drop the fertility rate in SK from ~0.7 to ~0.5.
  • HPsquared 2y ago
    Funnily enough this is one of the only areas NK is doing better than SK. It's quite an important one..
  • avisser 2y ago
    0.5 is so wild. Gen1: 100 people: 50 men + 50 women; 50 women have 25 babies Gen2: 26 people: 13 men + 12 women (for math); 12 women have 6 babies Gen3: 6 people So 100 people end up having 6 total grandkids between all of them. In the US, you hear about Boomer grandparents who have at least 10 grandchildren.
    • Balgair 2y ago
      I was going to say that the math was off by 2, but nope, you're right. Fertility rate is based on each woman, not on a couple. Even if they kept the 0.81 rate that they are on, then you'd get: Gen1: 100 people: 50 men + 50 women; 50 women have 40 babies (40.5, but lest round to just 40) Gen2: 40 people: 20 men + 20 women; 20 women have 16 babies Gen3: 16 people Given that the current average age of a woman at the time of her first birth in SK is 33 years old (!?!?!), you'd expect the 100 people of SK to be just 16 people somewhere near 2090. Meaning that it's current population of ~52M goes to ~8M in ~70 years. An 84% reduction in 66 years, or 1.28% per year. And it looks only like it'll get worse for them. I can't think of any war or plague or natural disaster or famine that has ever done such a number to a population of that size over that long of a time. Granted, that hasn't happened yet. Still, whatever the hell is happening to them is something to be avoided like a war or a famine or a plague.
• whatevaa 2y ago
  South Korea is fucked if they don't change their atitude. North Korea will win the long game simply because there will be nobody left to fight at South.
  • Retric 2y ago
    Predicting population growth out 100+ years is unlikely to be accurate. South Korea is likely to have a larger population out as far as we can reasonably predict.
    • EForEndeavour 2y ago
      How far into the future do you think population growth can be reasonably predicted, and why?
      • Retric 2y ago
        It’s dependent on economics, politics, war, and immigration/refugees etc so very accurate predictions are limited to perhaps 6 months. Total population has inertia, but anything more than +/- 2% out 10 years is pushing it and that uncertainty just grows with time.
        • EForEndeavour 2y ago
          Where are you getting the specific values of 6 months and ±2% out 10 years? Genuinely curious to learn more. Maybe back-testing of archived predictions from prior decades against the eventual reality?
    • whatevaa 2y ago
      At current rate South Korea will be in deep trouble in this decade, no need for 100 years. It's really bad.
    • snapcaster 2y ago
      Have you seen how grim the current fertility rates are? Agreed on extrapolating outwards being iffy but this isn't a 100+ year thing. It's something happening right now
• CuriouslyC 2y ago
  Seems like an easy dating market for men that explicitly want to have children and can support a wife.
  • BobaFloutist 2y ago
    How well informed are you on (South) Korean gender politics?
  • atemerev 2y ago
    Well, wives work too.
    • gadflyinyoureye 2y ago
      That’s where the support part of the sentence comes in. The man can support the wife not working and the children that come with it.
      • atemerev 2y ago
        You don’t understand. Women _want_ to work, like most people. House caring is a shitty, mostly thankless, boring, unpaid job — most of white collar jobs are much better in comparison. Rich people outsource most difficult parts to hired help. And for those who don’t — the total experience is not that interesting and too exhausting, only possible if there are no other options in life.
        • gadflyinyoureye 2y ago
          I understand that women want to work. However both parents working does not appear to be a tenable position. In a male-centric local like Korea, a man who can pay for a family is a good catch. Hopefully he respects his wife.
          • whatevaa 2y ago
            Maybe if there would be a safety net for when man doesn't respect his wife. Relying on hope is foolish.
• fny 2y ago
  People who talk about demographic crises seem to forget that populations grow in a S-shaped curve with things leveling out when resources become scarce. The reasons cited for the crisis are "demanding work cultures, stagnating wages, rising costs of living, changing attitudes toward marriage and gender equality, and rising disillusionment among younger generations." This rhymes a lot with scarce resources: people lack the time and money to raise kids. So maybe 1 more day off helps alleviate lack of time, but lack of money might persist if wages scale with hours worked.