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How does the losses compare year over year with inflation adjusted numbers? Where to find that data to see the pattern here.
by ssahoo 2y ago
How does the losses compare year over year with inflation adjusted numbers? Where to find that data to see the pattern here.
- bdcravens 2y agoThe news isn't the dollar amount, but the amount of claims relative to other disaster types. The story is that due to climate change, thunderstorms are causing a higher share than in years past. (Presumption being that all claim types are affecting by inflation in the same way)
- esalman 2y agoIt is actually straightforward to obtain dollar amounts from the claims. Past few years have seen an uptick in single natural disasters causing more than a billion dollars in insured losses.
- throwaway290 2y agoCan this be correlated with amount and severity of thunderstorms? You know people will just say it is because of aging infra and blame the big government
- esalman 2y agoNot necessarily. Hurricane debby currently affecting Florida is a cat 1 storm with only 80 miles max wind. But it's still bringing devastating flooding and storm surge damage.
- westpfelia 2y agoI mean look at texas. They do have shit infra. But they also have been having worse and worse weather, between the winters and the storms.
- throwaway290 2y agoYes so specific stats about how much more bad weather/thunderstorm there is is what I meant. Otherwise people will just say more damages is because of that bad infra.
- somedude895 2y agoFrom the SwissRe report linked above: Urban development, wealth accumulation in disaster-prone areas and inflation are key factors at play, turning extreme weather into ever rising natural catastrophe losses.
- sien 2y agoDoes this help : "Since 1990, the toll of disasters as a proportion of the global economy has gone down from about 0.25% of GDP to less than 0.20%. That is good news and indicates progress with respect to the goals of the Sendai Framework." from : https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-disaster-losses1990-2023 https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-disaster-losses1...
- cm2187 2y agoBut global GDP has dramatically increased since the 90s, China and India in particular.
- euroderf 2y agoSo instead of achieving full employment by paying people to dig ditches and then fill them up again, we create the climatic conditions for nonstop disasters and then clean up and rebuild after them. The end result? Profit!
- gary_0 2y agoThink of how rich the glaziers will be, replacing all those windows damaged in storms! That sector of the economy will surely be a source of infinite wealth!
- DaoVeles 2y agoThis is one of those figures that is both right and wrong, well more correct but also a little divisive (if you will). Yes, the percentage is down but the amount of damage is up. SO it depends on what you are optimizing for, share of costs or overall impact.
- abdullahkhalids 2y agoThis is very misleading. The damage should be proportional to the relevant parts of the economy, rather than as a proportion of the total. Especially keeping in mind that certain parts of the global economy are essential (like agriculture) and others less so. For example, suppose in year 1800 or whatever, 20% of some region's economy is agriculture. Drought occurs, and food production goes down by half. So gdp goes down by 10%. In 2024, agriculture is 4% of the economy. Drought again kills half the food production. GDP goes down by 2%. Are we doing better?
- hwillis 2y ago> Losses from severe thunderstorms have steadily increased by 7% annually in the last 30 years. 2023 marks an increase of almost 90% compared to the previous 5-year average (USD 32 billion), and more than doubles the previous 10-year average (USD 27 billion). https://www.swissre.com/press-release/Insured-losses-from-severe-thunderstorms-reach-new-all-time-high-of-USD-60-billion-in-2023-Swiss-Re-Institute-estimates/4a15acf7-64b4-4766-8662-1c35d268ab12 https://www.swissre.com/press-release/Insured-losses-from-se... from the previous year's report.
- Ekaros 2y agoSo how does it compare to stock market or other such markets? If it tracks, well same effect just bigger number.
- HeatrayEnjoyer 2y agoMost economic growth are not in assets that can experience physical damage, or not without very widespread or global devastation. Exponentially growing economic losses thus implicate exponentially more violent weather. And exponents have a way of growing from curiosities to existential threats overnight.
- hwillis 2y agoThunderstorms damage things like house cladding, roads, and water and power infrastructure. Things built 20+ years ago. Inflation is a reasonable control since it may make the repairs more expensive. The stock market is not a reasonable control because it is related to the production of these assets. Production that is delayed and smoothed over decades.
- hnburnsy 2y agoIsn't that worldwide and not just the US, and not inflation adjusted.