4 ms·

Just to clear some facts: - China (Popular Republic of) have NO NEED to invade Taiwan (or Republic of China, that's what they call themselves) because an aero-

by kkfx 2y ago

Just to clear some facts: - China (Popular Republic of) have NO NEED to invade Taiwan (or Republic of China, that's what they call themselves) because an aero-maritime blockade would suffice to starve Taiwan to death; - they do not do so simply because they want Taiwan semiconductor industry, witch is still ahead of their own domestic one, otherwise Taiwan is damn easy to erase; - being a small HYPER-dense island Taiwan can't be ready for a war at all, there is no measure they can act to stop an invasion, they can only deter it stating "if someone invade we blown up our factories, the sole reason for anyone to invade, because or we rule ourselves or we die". I'm not sure in this last case how many people will comply anyway, since while they hate each others they do call themselves Chinese on both sides and they are not democracy on both sides. For some from Taiwan living in Shenzen makes no difference in quality of life, OR it's even better in Shenzen than in Taipei.

tim333 2y ago
China would have problems with an aero-maritime blockade if the US opposed it.
- kkfx 2y ago
  As the USA would have problems confronting China: https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html or a journalistic summary of the same report https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/07/us-might-lose-war-china-congressional-commission-says/398418/ https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/07/us-might-lose-war... Consider a thing: last real war between modern powers was the Korean wars, those with experience there are not on duty anymore. Modern war in the west thereafter was only against far inferior enemies and most of them was lost anyway. Meanwhile PRC have reasons from their citizens perspective to attack Taiwan, USA citizens to not feel much about Taiwan since most do not understand it's semiconductor superpower, so on one side you get motivated soldiers, on the other not so much. State that China internally it's a dire state LIKE USA, so both do not want a war, but while China do not want it for real USA need it to keep the dollar as a global reserve or they'll face a civil war due to rising inequalities and poverty, something that's essentially started in the UK even if formally they state they are only some fascist rioting for a recent stabbing, I've no doubt those who push/start the riots are fascist, but I pretty sure most participants are just impoverished people also made angry by recent conscription attempt. USA are in a far less bad situation, but not so far https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/one-inch-from-a-potential-civil-war/ https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/one-inch-from-a-potential-civi... Beside that we in the west feel no reason nor desire for a war, knowing it's something needed by the ruling class against the people, most do not even know/believe resources are scarce enough to demand a war to grab them in quantity to keep our living conditions at the expense of someone else. While in many other countries people feel the need for a war for themselves, so no matter much their armaments, tech level, and so on, they are mostly young, motivated and desperate enough.
EasyMark 2y ago
Taiwan has enough cruise missles to blow any shipping blockade to smithereens in such a scenario and sink most of the Chinese navy’s large ships.

by kkfx 2y ago

tim333 2y ago

China would have problems with an aero-maritime blockade if the US opposed it.

kkfx 2y ago
As the USA would have problems confronting China: https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/NDS-commission.html or a journalistic summary of the same report https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/07/us-might-lose-war-china-congressional-commission-says/398418/ https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/07/us-might-lose-war... Consider a thing: last real war between modern powers was the Korean wars, those with experience there are not on duty anymore. Modern war in the west thereafter was only against far inferior enemies and most of them was lost anyway. Meanwhile PRC have reasons from their citizens perspective to attack Taiwan, USA citizens to not feel much about Taiwan since most do not understand it's semiconductor superpower, so on one side you get motivated soldiers, on the other not so much. State that China internally it's a dire state LIKE USA, so both do not want a war, but while China do not want it for real USA need it to keep the dollar as a global reserve or they'll face a civil war due to rising inequalities and poverty, something that's essentially started in the UK even if formally they state they are only some fascist rioting for a recent stabbing, I've no doubt those who push/start the riots are fascist, but I pretty sure most participants are just impoverished people also made angry by recent conscription attempt. USA are in a far less bad situation, but not so far https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/one-inch-from-a-potential-civil-war/ https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/one-inch-from-a-potential-civi... Beside that we in the west feel no reason nor desire for a war, knowing it's something needed by the ruling class against the people, most do not even know/believe resources are scarce enough to demand a war to grab them in quantity to keep our living conditions at the expense of someone else. While in many other countries people feel the need for a war for themselves, so no matter much their armaments, tech level, and so on, they are mostly young, motivated and desperate enough.

EasyMark 2y ago

Taiwan has enough cruise missles to blow any shipping blockade to smithereens in such a scenario and sink most of the Chinese navy’s large ships.