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We from the west in the history have tempted many time conquering Russia, all tentative fails. Sometimes some have get a bit of territory but not more than that
by kkfx 2y ago
We from the west in the history have tempted many time conquering Russia, all tentative fails. Sometimes some have get a bit of territory but not more than that: they have natural resources and space, they can travel using land as a diplomatic tool and a war tool.
There is ZERO chances for Ukraine, from the start, and that was NOT the target anyway. The war was not started by Russians to expand but by the USA to "Overextending and Unbalancing Russia" [1] given all other historical tentative have failed. The target was not Russia but Central Asia for spaces and natural resources, it's the target for all big powers, Russia, China, USA, UK, EU.
So far Russia has not overextended and it's pretty united, so also this strategy is a failure. Yes, so far they have no apparent alternatives to Putin, they are industrially weak, but they compensate since Putin could be potentially active for years to come and nuclear deterrence will help.
Meanwhile impoverished UK subjects are on the brink of a civil war, in USA the situation is much better since they have on their own space and natural resources, but the wealthiness gap is so big that they are an inch from a civil war [2], EU is impoverishing as well and citizens here so far are convinced by the fascist PR but that's will not last longer, so again a civil war is near, for UK it's a matter of months, for USA maybe some years and for the EU a little bit more, but not really much more. China have a looming demographic implosion so for them the disaster is just a bit more far then the EU. India, Indonesia, Iran etc are almost climatically doomed so they ruling class have essentially the same time of the UK ones.
The point is simple, the modern capitalism, witch is hybrid son of nazism and communism together it's FAILED, probably beyond repair. Traditional repair are wars but winnable ones, so far powers playing are so weak, fragile and military powerful that's no chance for no one to win a war, just some battles. Unfortunately we also miss a big slice of middle class, now impoverished, so we miss the fuel to build a new society out of the failed one. Germans future is the Ukrainian one, just few years in the future, Italy will follow thanks just to more individual wealth and more territory potential, France might stand a bit more since they are less dense so they can at least nourish their people longer and they still have a large slice of industrial productions, Spain might stand thanks to climate and renewables but climate change and their urbanocentrism will kill them soon. I can go on.
The sole theoretical chance, technically possible, but almost a social utopia, is unite the EU politically under France dome, since they are the sole global and nuclear power left, and unite EU and EAEU to access natural resources and spaces they have, offering in exchange industrial capacity they miss since the fall of the Soviet.
[1] https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
[2] https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/one-inch-from-a-potential-civil-war/ https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/one-inch-from-a-potential-civi...