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I don’t believe PRC would drop a nuke on TW if they pursued a nuclear weapon. They want to unify with TW, not make a crater of it. Invasion maybe. I think if

I don’t believe PRC would drop a nuke on TW if they pursued a nuclear weapon. They want to unify with TW, not make a crater of it. Invasion maybe. I think if I was in charge of strategic policy at TW I would get as close to a nuke as I could without raising suspicions in the PRC and then once the PRC gets involved in a war or domestic turmoil I would rush to nukes as fast as possible.

maxglute 2y ago
PRC want to pacify TW as security risk foremost, reunifying with irradiated but harmless crater of island is not ideal, but preferrable consolation prize to nuclearized TW. Cross strait camaraderie is nice for propaganda, but ultimately really about the soil, not the people, and even radioactive land with no people will suffice. Conventional invasion difficult, might be tried first, but wouldn't rule out radioactive exclusion zone and then airdropping soldiers on one way mission to destroy nuclear program. Secessionist getting nukes (remember TW lack of status as UN) is boots on ground situation, PRC has political carte blanche to do what they want on basically ISIS trying to sprint for nukes, pretty much no one wants proliferation under these circumstances, and PRC will be going gloves off for gaza tier and worse response. If TW could nuclearize without PRC (or US) knowing, they would have already. But I don't think they can, and despite the occasional US hawks thinks it's neat idea to put TW under US nuclear umbrella, sane planners they know PRC will attribute TW nuclearizing to US negligence (really participation) since unlikely TW can do so without PRC notice unless US help obfuscate. Trying to hide being near threshold while waiting for PRC collapse and assume PRC won't/can't find out even less likely. In which case that's a Cuban crisis PRC won't flinch from, and TW nuclear use will be equivicated with US nuclear use. It's not the galaxy brain one simple trick people think it is. As PRC builds up nuke parity with US, this idea going to be extra bad. Somewhat related, domestic politics aside, one has to wonder if other forces behind why TW is decommissioning her nuclear plants and becoming even more energy dependant, and less nuclear latent.

maxglute 2y ago

PRC want to pacify TW as security risk foremost, reunifying with irradiated but harmless crater of island is not ideal, but preferrable consolation prize to nuclearized TW. Cross strait camaraderie is nice for propaganda, but ultimately really about the soil, not the people, and even radioactive land with no people will suffice. Conventional invasion difficult, might be tried first, but wouldn't rule out radioactive exclusion zone and then airdropping soldiers on one way mission to destroy nuclear program. Secessionist getting nukes (remember TW lack of status as UN) is boots on ground situation, PRC has political carte blanche to do what they want on basically ISIS trying to sprint for nukes, pretty much no one wants proliferation under these circumstances, and PRC will be going gloves off for gaza tier and worse response. If TW could nuclearize without PRC (or US) knowing, they would have already. But I don't think they can, and despite the occasional US hawks thinks it's neat idea to put TW under US nuclear umbrella, sane planners they know PRC will attribute TW nuclearizing to US negligence (really participation) since unlikely TW can do so without PRC notice unless US help obfuscate. Trying to hide being near threshold while waiting for PRC collapse and assume PRC won't/can't find out even less likely. In which case that's a Cuban crisis PRC won't flinch from, and TW nuclear use will be equivicated with US nuclear use. It's not the galaxy brain one simple trick people think it is. As PRC builds up nuke parity with US, this idea going to be extra bad. Somewhat related, domestic politics aside, one has to wonder if other forces behind why TW is decommissioning her nuclear plants and becoming even more energy dependant, and less nuclear latent.