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TL;DR, and this took a while to parse out, but the post suggests a highly unlikely event that the vote was accurate. > The numerical anomaly is that if one mu
by mmastrac 2y ago
TL;DR, and this took a while to parse out, but the post suggests a highly unlikely event that the vote was accurate.
> The numerical anomaly is that if one multiplies the total number of voters {10,058,774} by the round percentages {51.2\%}, {44.2\%}, {4.6\%}, one recovers exactly the above vote counts after rounding to the nearest integer:
...
> giving credence to the theory of the election report being manipulated (though it is possible that the manipulation could occur through a third hypothesis {H_2} not covered by the original two hypotheses, such as a software glitch
- thaumasiotes 2y ago> this took a while to parse out Andrew Gelman's post on the counts is better written: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/31/suspicious-data-pattern-in-recent-venezuelan-election/ https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2024/07/31/suspicious... (The description and the conclusion aren't different; it's just easier to read.)