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Taiwan is a legit democracy. Elections. Rule of law. Freedom. PRC is not. I suppose Taiwan could be a “special administrative region.” But that doesn’t offer

Taiwan is a legit democracy. Elections. Rule of law. Freedom. PRC is not. I suppose Taiwan could be a “special administrative region.” But that doesn’t offer many guarantees, does it?

worstspotgain 2y ago
What's the endgame with China? No one wants Global Thermonuclear War. A renewed Cold War is only possible if China is in Russia's camp. This is not really in China's interest any more than it is in ours. It's only in Russia's interest. The only good endgame is "China becomes a normal nation." This was the premise for granting it MNF trading status in the 90s. It included the notion that democracy would rub off automagically, which was obviously wishful thinking. To be fair, democracy's track record hasn't been all that hot in recent years, in no small part because of Russia's worldwide meddling push. Recently, we've basically given up on pushing for the only good possible endgame outcome. We've largely succumbed to Russia's instigation. It's very unlikely that the CCP will turn democratic overnight. The path there is one of incremental changes. Instead of demanding free and fair elections, freedom of dissent and freedom of the press from day one, we should get back in the nudging game. Coincidentally, no one would be in a better position to nudge China along than Taiwan inside of an EU-style framework.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- EasyMark 2y ago
  Short of a coup or rebellion, China isn’t turning “democratic” in the next hundred years. 50 years of favored trading status with various countries has done nothing but cause CCP to dig in harder and it’s a bigger dictatorship than even Mao imagined.
  - worstspotgain 2y ago
    I'm not sure where you're getting your 100-year crystal ball. Instead of hating on them (which coincidentally is exactly what Putin wants us to do,) why don't we try to break the problem down? The biggest difference between the Chinese system and ours is not the selection of leaders, which is a lot more "democratic" there than in many of our allies like Saudi Arabia. It's tolerance for dissent. The trick is that the CCP (which at this point is about as communist as Quaker Oats is Quaker) don't have to shed their power base to do it. They just have to have more than one, without horribly repressing the others. In practice, countries can end up having a dominant party while being actually democratic, like Mexico and South Africa did for a long time (or Oklahoma and California for that matter.) Often, the dominant party meddles with the media and stacks the deck in their favor. The rest of the world grumbles but keeps playing along. I think ruling elites find it hard to even entertain the notion of dismantling a conformist monoculture. It is a mixed bag from their perspective, and they're technically not wrong: they'll have to deal with e.g. populist morons, foreign-backed candidates, and political disruption. But it's for the best for their country and the planet. A coup or rebellion isn't needed. It's much more likely to play out as a set of reforms pushed by "visionary leaders," like Perestroika in the mid-80s. This is what we should be pushing for, in front of and behind the scenes.
nashashmi 2y ago
There are no legitimate democracies. There is the west, those who align with it, and the rest of the world who dont, and the rest of the world who are against the west. Taiwan is with the west. China is the rest. That’s your guarantee

Taiwan is a legit democracy. Elections. Rule of law. Freedom. PRC is not. I suppose Taiwan could be a “special administrative region.” But that doesn’t offer many guarantees, does it?

worstspotgain 2y ago

What's the endgame with China? No one wants Global Thermonuclear War. A renewed Cold War is only possible if China is in Russia's camp. This is not really in China's interest any more than it is in ours. It's only in Russia's interest. The only good endgame is "China becomes a normal nation." This was the premise for granting it MNF trading status in the 90s. It included the notion that democracy would rub off automagically, which was obviously wishful thinking. To be fair, democracy's track record hasn't been all that hot in recent years, in no small part because of Russia's worldwide meddling push. Recently, we've basically given up on pushing for the only good possible endgame outcome. We've largely succumbed to Russia's instigation. It's very unlikely that the CCP will turn democratic overnight. The path there is one of incremental changes. Instead of demanding free and fair elections, freedom of dissent and freedom of the press from day one, we should get back in the nudging game. Coincidentally, no one would be in a better position to nudge China along than Taiwan inside of an EU-style framework.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
EasyMark 2y ago
Short of a coup or rebellion, China isn’t turning “democratic” in the next hundred years. 50 years of favored trading status with various countries has done nothing but cause CCP to dig in harder and it’s a bigger dictatorship than even Mao imagined.
- worstspotgain 2y ago
  I'm not sure where you're getting your 100-year crystal ball. Instead of hating on them (which coincidentally is exactly what Putin wants us to do,) why don't we try to break the problem down? The biggest difference between the Chinese system and ours is not the selection of leaders, which is a lot more "democratic" there than in many of our allies like Saudi Arabia. It's tolerance for dissent. The trick is that the CCP (which at this point is about as communist as Quaker Oats is Quaker) don't have to shed their power base to do it. They just have to have more than one, without horribly repressing the others. In practice, countries can end up having a dominant party while being actually democratic, like Mexico and South Africa did for a long time (or Oklahoma and California for that matter.) Often, the dominant party meddles with the media and stacks the deck in their favor. The rest of the world grumbles but keeps playing along. I think ruling elites find it hard to even entertain the notion of dismantling a conformist monoculture. It is a mixed bag from their perspective, and they're technically not wrong: they'll have to deal with e.g. populist morons, foreign-backed candidates, and political disruption. But it's for the best for their country and the planet. A coup or rebellion isn't needed. It's much more likely to play out as a set of reforms pushed by "visionary leaders," like Perestroika in the mid-80s. This is what we should be pushing for, in front of and behind the scenes.

nashashmi 2y ago

There are no legitimate democracies. There is the west, those who align with it, and the rest of the world who dont, and the rest of the world who are against the west. Taiwan is with the west. China is the rest. That’s your guarantee