4 ms·

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Ta

by wahern 2y ago

Taiwan did have secret nuclear weapons program in the 70s or 80s, with cover from their nascent nuclear power facilities. When the US caught wind they forced Taiwan to shut the program down. I'm not sure if China knew about it at the time, but I imagine these days it would be impossible to keep it secret from China--too many spies.

maxglute 2y ago
Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey potential isn't as fast as PLA rockets/bunker busters. Unmentioned aspect of US axing TW nuclear program in late 80s, was CSIST / INER (Taiwan nuclear program) was already monitored by PRC intelligence and post Nixon normalization US intel cooperated with PRC intel to shut the program down. Unwritten between the line is PRC, having closely monitored TW program would have probably nuked TW first if US didn't compel TW to end the program. US Inspection / IAEA went in the dismantle the program, no doubt verified by PRC intelligence, it's unlikely TW can rebuild to nuclear turnkey faster than PRC can mount an invasion. And realistically TW can't fend off a PRC invasion without US involvement, and if US involves to assist TW nuclearizing then TW going to get nuked, and US + PRC will stare down MAD. Also note PRC fought as in actually shed blood with USSR, India (both borderm skirmishes), US+NATO in Korea, armed Viet against FR, threatened UK over HK... aka every NPT nuclear state over sovereignty/security issues much less important than TW. A few of them when PRC had no/barely any nukes herself. Nuclear simply has never been a credible threat against PRC soverignty issues.
- __turbobrew__ 2y ago
  I don’t believe PRC would drop a nuke on TW if they pursued a nuclear weapon. They want to unify with TW, not make a crater of it. Invasion maybe. I think if I was in charge of strategic policy at TW I would get as close to a nuke as I could without raising suspicions in the PRC and then once the PRC gets involved in a war or domestic turmoil I would rush to nukes as fast as possible.
  - maxglute 2y ago
    PRC want to pacify TW as security risk foremost, reunifying with irradiated but harmless crater of island is not ideal, but preferrable consolation prize to nuclearized TW. Cross strait camaraderie is nice for propaganda, but ultimately really about the soil, not the people, and even radioactive land with no people will suffice. Conventional invasion difficult, might be tried first, but wouldn't rule out radioactive exclusion zone and then airdropping soldiers on one way mission to destroy nuclear program. Secessionist getting nukes (remember TW lack of status as UN) is boots on ground situation, PRC has political carte blanche to do what they want on basically ISIS trying to sprint for nukes, pretty much no one wants proliferation under these circumstances, and PRC will be going gloves off for gaza tier and worse response. If TW could nuclearize without PRC (or US) knowing, they would have already. But I don't think they can, and despite the occasional US hawks thinks it's neat idea to put TW under US nuclear umbrella, sane planners they know PRC will attribute TW nuclearizing to US negligence (really participation) since unlikely TW can do so without PRC notice unless US help obfuscate. Trying to hide being near threshold while waiting for PRC collapse and assume PRC won't/can't find out even less likely. In which case that's a Cuban crisis PRC won't flinch from, and TW nuclear use will be equivicated with US nuclear use. It's not the galaxy brain one simple trick people think it is. As PRC builds up nuke parity with US, this idea going to be extra bad. Somewhat related, domestic politics aside, one has to wonder if other forces behind why TW is decommissioning her nuclear plants and becoming even more energy dependant, and less nuclear latent.
- godelmachine 2y ago
  I totally disagree with the last paragraph. Shedding blood != waging war. China has never dared until now, and will never dare in the future, to engage in a heads-on conflict against the USA. It has skirmishes and conflicts with almost every neighbour. The PRC defence forces do not have the worldwide fighting experience which the US has. Nuclear deterrence acts strongly against the PRC, and they won’t do anything stupid against Taiwan as long as US Navy is positioned in their backyard.
  - maxglute 2y ago
    PRC fought US+UN (Nato typo) in full scale war in 50s, to stalemate, while PLA was dramatically inferior vs gap now, and when PRC didn't have nukes, while US did. So not only did they dare to fight US on much worse odds, they did so not deterred by nukes, which US planners mused about using. Shedding blood with several nuclear powers isn't nothing, there's simply no country more willing to challenge other nuclear powers / be less deterred by nukes than PRC on security issues. IMO US global war experience doesn't amount to much relevant in peer war, in peers backyard, against peer whos spend last 20 years soley fixated on countering US. IMO most don't realize how meagre current USN (and general US posture) is in IndoPac relative to current PRC size and what PRC has in threatre (everything), and how extra meagre 7th fleet in indopac is, CVN76 (carrier group) + desron15 (destroyer squadron) is like 10-20 ships depending on deployment. Last few years PRC coast guard messing around in Senkakus, dozens of incidents every year that should on paper trigger US defense obligation, but nothing from US. USN hasn't been credible deterrent for a while. US not sending carriers through TW straight for years, current US planning has carriers operate out of PRC backyard during shooting war to hopefully figure out way to do standoff strikes. Assuming they're not sunk before that. Or assuming they can operate more than a few days since PRC missiles can hit most replenishment sites/fleets. For reference invading 90s Iraq took 5 carriers group + regional basing + french selling out Iraqi air defense. Eisenhower carrier / CVN69+DDGs aren't exactly defeating houthis right now. Current PRC is like 80x larger than Iraq then by population, 100x larger by gdp, and 100x+ more industrial output. Current one year PRC ship building is outputting cumulative US 5 year WW2 which is proxy indicator for other domains (like munitions). USN formidable against PLA 10-15 years ago, but that's also how long PRC took to close gap which they are likely to extend.
- stogot 2y ago
  Is there a good book on this history?
  - maxglute 2y ago
    Here's a recent English report. isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/TaiwansFormerNuclearWeaponsProgram_POD_color_withCover.pdf Looks like there are some old archived articles on TW wiki of their nuclear program. Coverage stirried up in early 2000s when US/PRC relations warming up and TW felt threatened about their security started seeding more info about nuclear program, hinting they can restart. I read some of the books that started popping up a few years later, they were in Chinese, I can't recall them anymore. https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E8%88%87%E5%A4%A7%E8%A6%8F%E6%A8%A1%E6%AE%BA%E5%82%B7%E6%80%A7%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8 https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5... ISIS report interesting in that on the box on page 123, note 14, acknowledges US+PRC intelligence cooperation (from interview by authors with former CIA/US ambassador to PRC). This is something I've seen mentioned in Chinese writing years ago, getting confirmed. Hence there's something to PRC's narrative that they had foreknowledge of TW program and had hand in compelling US to dismantle TW nuclear program to avert crisis.

by wahern 2y ago

maxglute 2y ago

Yes PRC knew, hence TW nuclearizing is non starter. TW/ROC was/is still thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, if there's credible hint they're moving from nuclear latency/threshold to actual nuclearization (PRC redline), the relevant facilities would be destroyed - no need for PLA boots on ground or telescoped build up, every inch of TW is within 10 minute strike of mainland based ordnances. TW nuclear turnkey potential isn't as fast as PLA rockets/bunker busters. Unmentioned aspect of US axing TW nuclear program in late 80s, was CSIST / INER (Taiwan nuclear program) was already monitored by PRC intelligence and post Nixon normalization US intel cooperated with PRC intel to shut the program down. Unwritten between the line is PRC, having closely monitored TW program would have probably nuked TW first if US didn't compel TW to end the program. US Inspection / IAEA went in the dismantle the program, no doubt verified by PRC intelligence, it's unlikely TW can rebuild to nuclear turnkey faster than PRC can mount an invasion. And realistically TW can't fend off a PRC invasion without US involvement, and if US involves to assist TW nuclearizing then TW going to get nuked, and US + PRC will stare down MAD. Also note PRC fought as in actually shed blood with USSR, India (both borderm skirmishes), US+NATO in Korea, armed Viet against FR, threatened UK over HK... aka every NPT nuclear state over sovereignty/security issues much less important than TW. A few of them when PRC had no/barely any nukes herself. Nuclear simply has never been a credible threat against PRC soverignty issues.

__turbobrew__ 2y ago
I don’t believe PRC would drop a nuke on TW if they pursued a nuclear weapon. They want to unify with TW, not make a crater of it. Invasion maybe. I think if I was in charge of strategic policy at TW I would get as close to a nuke as I could without raising suspicions in the PRC and then once the PRC gets involved in a war or domestic turmoil I would rush to nukes as fast as possible.
- maxglute 2y ago
  PRC want to pacify TW as security risk foremost, reunifying with irradiated but harmless crater of island is not ideal, but preferrable consolation prize to nuclearized TW. Cross strait camaraderie is nice for propaganda, but ultimately really about the soil, not the people, and even radioactive land with no people will suffice. Conventional invasion difficult, might be tried first, but wouldn't rule out radioactive exclusion zone and then airdropping soldiers on one way mission to destroy nuclear program. Secessionist getting nukes (remember TW lack of status as UN) is boots on ground situation, PRC has political carte blanche to do what they want on basically ISIS trying to sprint for nukes, pretty much no one wants proliferation under these circumstances, and PRC will be going gloves off for gaza tier and worse response. If TW could nuclearize without PRC (or US) knowing, they would have already. But I don't think they can, and despite the occasional US hawks thinks it's neat idea to put TW under US nuclear umbrella, sane planners they know PRC will attribute TW nuclearizing to US negligence (really participation) since unlikely TW can do so without PRC notice unless US help obfuscate. Trying to hide being near threshold while waiting for PRC collapse and assume PRC won't/can't find out even less likely. In which case that's a Cuban crisis PRC won't flinch from, and TW nuclear use will be equivicated with US nuclear use. It's not the galaxy brain one simple trick people think it is. As PRC builds up nuke parity with US, this idea going to be extra bad. Somewhat related, domestic politics aside, one has to wonder if other forces behind why TW is decommissioning her nuclear plants and becoming even more energy dependant, and less nuclear latent.
godelmachine 2y ago
I totally disagree with the last paragraph. Shedding blood != waging war. China has never dared until now, and will never dare in the future, to engage in a heads-on conflict against the USA. It has skirmishes and conflicts with almost every neighbour. The PRC defence forces do not have the worldwide fighting experience which the US has. Nuclear deterrence acts strongly against the PRC, and they won’t do anything stupid against Taiwan as long as US Navy is positioned in their backyard.
- maxglute 2y ago
  PRC fought US+UN (Nato typo) in full scale war in 50s, to stalemate, while PLA was dramatically inferior vs gap now, and when PRC didn't have nukes, while US did. So not only did they dare to fight US on much worse odds, they did so not deterred by nukes, which US planners mused about using. Shedding blood with several nuclear powers isn't nothing, there's simply no country more willing to challenge other nuclear powers / be less deterred by nukes than PRC on security issues. IMO US global war experience doesn't amount to much relevant in peer war, in peers backyard, against peer whos spend last 20 years soley fixated on countering US. IMO most don't realize how meagre current USN (and general US posture) is in IndoPac relative to current PRC size and what PRC has in threatre (everything), and how extra meagre 7th fleet in indopac is, CVN76 (carrier group) + desron15 (destroyer squadron) is like 10-20 ships depending on deployment. Last few years PRC coast guard messing around in Senkakus, dozens of incidents every year that should on paper trigger US defense obligation, but nothing from US. USN hasn't been credible deterrent for a while. US not sending carriers through TW straight for years, current US planning has carriers operate out of PRC backyard during shooting war to hopefully figure out way to do standoff strikes. Assuming they're not sunk before that. Or assuming they can operate more than a few days since PRC missiles can hit most replenishment sites/fleets. For reference invading 90s Iraq took 5 carriers group + regional basing + french selling out Iraqi air defense. Eisenhower carrier / CVN69+DDGs aren't exactly defeating houthis right now. Current PRC is like 80x larger than Iraq then by population, 100x larger by gdp, and 100x+ more industrial output. Current one year PRC ship building is outputting cumulative US 5 year WW2 which is proxy indicator for other domains (like munitions). USN formidable against PLA 10-15 years ago, but that's also how long PRC took to close gap which they are likely to extend.
stogot 2y ago
Is there a good book on this history?
- maxglute 2y ago
  Here's a recent English report. isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/TaiwansFormerNuclearWeaponsProgram_POD_color_withCover.pdf Looks like there are some old archived articles on TW wiki of their nuclear program. Coverage stirried up in early 2000s when US/PRC relations warming up and TW felt threatened about their security started seeding more info about nuclear program, hinting they can restart. I read some of the books that started popping up a few years later, they were in Chinese, I can't recall them anymore. https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E8%88%87%E5%A4%A7%E8%A6%8F%E6%A8%A1%E6%AE%BA%E5%82%B7%E6%80%A7%E6%AD%A6%E5%99%A8 https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5... ISIS report interesting in that on the box on page 123, note 14, acknowledges US+PRC intelligence cooperation (from interview by authors with former CIA/US ambassador to PRC). This is something I've seen mentioned in Chinese writing years ago, getting confirmed. Hence there's something to PRC's narrative that they had foreknowledge of TW program and had hand in compelling US to dismantle TW nuclear program to avert crisis.