4 ms·

Good point. Probably the Americans have dissuaded them from building a nuclear warhead in exchange for guaranteed protection?

Waterluvian 2y ago
Which makes it critically important to see through to the end that Ukraine wins. Otherwise South Korea, Taiwan, and others would be right in recognizing that a nuclear arsenal is the better option.
- zarzavat 2y ago
  This has always been true though. Consider, if the US is a friend worth depending on why do its closest allies UK, Israel and France still maintain nuclear weapons at great expense? In Europe the fact that the US dragged its feet entering WWII is still within living memory. Asian countries perhaps are still to learn this lesson.
  - hartator 2y ago
    Europe dragged their feet in both ww as well. No one wants war.
    - kkfx 2y ago
      Actually UK (where a civil war seems just started) ruling class desperate need a war to remain in power, USA are in a far better position, but their ruling class still need a war to avoid a civil one. Israel ruling class desperately need to keep the war up or they'll go to jail so... At least three powers desperately look for war. Of course, the people do not want wars, but so far most people in the world have forgot the old way of unite to makes rulers obey so they obey instead.
      - stogot 2y ago
        Which UK civil war?
        gedy 2y ago
        Likely talking about Southport riots: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_riots https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_riots
        kkfx 2y ago
        Exactly, so far the press say that's are just a bunch of fascist, and I've no doubt those are the organizers and some most thugs in action, but most of the participating mass I bet are just impoverished people, like https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/oct/30/my-students-never-knew-the-lecturer-who-lived-in-a-tent https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/oct/30/my-student... or https://news.sky.com/story/food-bank-users-refusing-potatoes-due-to-rising-cooking-costs-iceland-chief-says-12573336 https://news.sky.com/story/food-bank-users-refusing-potatoes... and also https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4165370/national-scandal-uk-deaths-caused-cold-homes-last-winter-charities-claim https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4165370/national-scandal-... etc. UK economy failed due to excess cleptocracy from very few, UK people start to be tired enough to riot. Perhaps they stop, perhaps they grow to the point of a full scale action against the government, I do not know, but that's to me an evident start/harbinger of a civil war.
        zarzavat 2y ago
        The vast majority of impoverished people manage to get through their day without attacking a mosque. These people aren’t rioting because they’re poor, they’re rioting because they are racists. If there’s a correlation between being a racist thug and being impoverished, the causation is likely low intelligence.
- nashashmi 2y ago
  There is no end to the war in which Ukraine wins. If Ukraine is winning and Russia gives up, America will be worried and find a way to keep the war going. If Russia wins while Ukrainians are still alive, America will be filled with regret that they did not support Ukraine well enough. Ukraine is like Afghanistan 2.0 ; the imminent fall/break of Russia.
antognini 2y ago
The US has pointedly never guaranteed protection for Taiwan. Its policy has been "strategic ambiguity."
- nashashmi 2y ago
  “Guarantee” has always meant ambiguity. The other word is promise. Or commitment. Ukraine gave up its nukes to the russians after the fall of the soviets in exchange for such “guarantee”.
- EasyMark 2y ago
  That’s what they say to the public. My suspicion is they have an ironclad diplomatic agreement behind the scenes
  - antognini 2y ago
    It can't be binding unless it's a treaty. A presidential administration could tell Taiwan that they would definitely come to their aid, but a new president could establish a different policy.
  - M95D 2y ago
    US will do whatever is convenient for them at that moment.
mensetmanusman 2y ago
Budapest memorandum-esque?
majorchord 2y ago
I feel like the only country that has guaranteed protection by the US would be Japan. Past that, rest of the top 5 would probably be South Korea, Philippines, Canada and Israel.

Waterluvian 2y ago

Which makes it critically important to see through to the end that Ukraine wins. Otherwise South Korea, Taiwan, and others would be right in recognizing that a nuclear arsenal is the better option.

zarzavat 2y ago
This has always been true though. Consider, if the US is a friend worth depending on why do its closest allies UK, Israel and France still maintain nuclear weapons at great expense? In Europe the fact that the US dragged its feet entering WWII is still within living memory. Asian countries perhaps are still to learn this lesson.
- hartator 2y ago
  Europe dragged their feet in both ww as well. No one wants war.
  - kkfx 2y ago
    Actually UK (where a civil war seems just started) ruling class desperate need a war to remain in power, USA are in a far better position, but their ruling class still need a war to avoid a civil one. Israel ruling class desperately need to keep the war up or they'll go to jail so... At least three powers desperately look for war. Of course, the people do not want wars, but so far most people in the world have forgot the old way of unite to makes rulers obey so they obey instead.
    - stogot 2y ago
      Which UK civil war?
      - gedy 2y ago
        Likely talking about Southport riots: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_riots https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_riots
        kkfx 2y ago
        Exactly, so far the press say that's are just a bunch of fascist, and I've no doubt those are the organizers and some most thugs in action, but most of the participating mass I bet are just impoverished people, like https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/oct/30/my-students-never-knew-the-lecturer-who-lived-in-a-tent https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/oct/30/my-student... or https://news.sky.com/story/food-bank-users-refusing-potatoes-due-to-rising-cooking-costs-iceland-chief-says-12573336 https://news.sky.com/story/food-bank-users-refusing-potatoes... and also https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4165370/national-scandal-uk-deaths-caused-cold-homes-last-winter-charities-claim https://www.businessgreen.com/news/4165370/national-scandal-... etc. UK economy failed due to excess cleptocracy from very few, UK people start to be tired enough to riot. Perhaps they stop, perhaps they grow to the point of a full scale action against the government, I do not know, but that's to me an evident start/harbinger of a civil war.
        zarzavat 2y ago
        The vast majority of impoverished people manage to get through their day without attacking a mosque. These people aren’t rioting because they’re poor, they’re rioting because they are racists. If there’s a correlation between being a racist thug and being impoverished, the causation is likely low intelligence.
nashashmi 2y ago
There is no end to the war in which Ukraine wins. If Ukraine is winning and Russia gives up, America will be worried and find a way to keep the war going. If Russia wins while Ukrainians are still alive, America will be filled with regret that they did not support Ukraine well enough. Ukraine is like Afghanistan 2.0 ; the imminent fall/break of Russia.

antognini 2y ago

The US has pointedly never guaranteed protection for Taiwan. Its policy has been "strategic ambiguity."

nashashmi 2y ago
“Guarantee” has always meant ambiguity. The other word is promise. Or commitment. Ukraine gave up its nukes to the russians after the fall of the soviets in exchange for such “guarantee”.
EasyMark 2y ago
That’s what they say to the public. My suspicion is they have an ironclad diplomatic agreement behind the scenes
- antognini 2y ago
  It can't be binding unless it's a treaty. A presidential administration could tell Taiwan that they would definitely come to their aid, but a new president could establish a different policy.
- M95D 2y ago
  US will do whatever is convenient for them at that moment.

mensetmanusman 2y ago

Budapest memorandum-esque?

majorchord 2y ago

I feel like the only country that has guaranteed protection by the US would be Japan. Past that, rest of the top 5 would probably be South Korea, Philippines, Canada and Israel.