5 ms·

Can anyone comment as to how seriously to take this paper? One paper is ultimately just one paper. The Wikipedia page on the AMOC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wik

Can anyone comment as to how seriously to take this paper? One paper is ultimately just one paper. The Wikipedia page on the AMOC (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...) links to a page summarizing some scientists’ reactions: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-warning-of-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation/ https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-... However, I have no idea if this is representative or not.

netsharc 2y ago
Those reactions are to the paper by 2 Danes, as covered in this article: https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/ https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/ HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41087977 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41087977
- hyperpape 2y ago
  I feel like the wired article does nothing to answer the fundamental question: how accurate is this paper’s estimate?
  - layer8 2y ago
    If there was an estimate on the accuracy of the paper’s estimate, how would you judge the accuracy of that estimate?
yodon 2y ago
There are about 20 major climate simulation models focused on ocean calculations at different research labs around the world. All of those models show the AMOC to be meta-stable (meaning it rapidly flips from on to off, as opposed to long gradual slowing). All of those models show the AMOC is on track to shut off "soon." All of those models show an AMOC shutoff event to be very serious, particularly for Northern Europe, but also for the world as a whole. Prior to this paper, the estimates on what "soon" meant were not very good and generally took the form of "it could be this century, or it could be in the next couple centuries." This paper has not been through peer review yet, but the authors are significant participants in the field. The paper is trying to answer one of the most important question in science right now, which is how long until the AMOC shuts down and what signals should one watch for to improve that prediction.
- aaron695 2y ago
  [dead]
- truculent 2y ago
  > All of those models show the AMOC is on track to shut off "soon." Presumably this means the AMOC is on track to hit its tipping point "soon". How long after hitting the tipping point would it take to "stop"? 100 years? Less?
  - yodon 2y ago
    I believe the work from this group suggests about 25 years, but that's probably still a preliminary number.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]

netsharc 2y ago

Those reactions are to the paper by 2 Danes, as covered in this article: https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/ https://www.wired.com/story/amoc-collapse-atlantic-ocean/ HN discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41087977 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41087977

hyperpape 2y ago
I feel like the wired article does nothing to answer the fundamental question: how accurate is this paper’s estimate?
- layer8 2y ago
  If there was an estimate on the accuracy of the paper’s estimate, how would you judge the accuracy of that estimate?

yodon 2y ago

There are about 20 major climate simulation models focused on ocean calculations at different research labs around the world. All of those models show the AMOC to be meta-stable (meaning it rapidly flips from on to off, as opposed to long gradual slowing). All of those models show the AMOC is on track to shut off "soon." All of those models show an AMOC shutoff event to be very serious, particularly for Northern Europe, but also for the world as a whole. Prior to this paper, the estimates on what "soon" meant were not very good and generally took the form of "it could be this century, or it could be in the next couple centuries." This paper has not been through peer review yet, but the authors are significant participants in the field. The paper is trying to answer one of the most important question in science right now, which is how long until the AMOC shuts down and what signals should one watch for to improve that prediction.

aaron695 2y ago
[dead]
truculent 2y ago
> All of those models show the AMOC is on track to shut off "soon." Presumably this means the AMOC is on track to hit its tipping point "soon". How long after hitting the tipping point would it take to "stop"? 100 years? Less?
- yodon 2y ago
  I believe the work from this group suggests about 25 years, but that's probably still a preliminary number.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]