3 ms·

> I can't tell which specific big things will radically change the world, but I am sure there's going to be at least one every 25 years — one between today and

> I can't tell which specific big things will radically change the world, but I am sure there's going to be at least one every 25 years — one between today and 2050 Aren't we still due for one between now and 2025 then?

ben_w 2y ago
We've had several. The first draft of the Human Genome Project was only published in 2003, but that covered 92% of the genome; it only got up to 99.7% in 2022. Personal genome tests are now regularly on special offer for a few hundred bucks rather than the $2.7 billion (non-inflation adjusted) of the original Human Genome Project. Genetic engineering was possible in 1999, but it wasn't until 2005 that CRISPR was discovered, 2006 that it was theorised how it might function, 2007 that this was demonstrated, 2012 until it was patented, and 2013 until it became commercially viable. Mobiles and the web technically existed in 1999, but the former were mostly black and white screens with number-pad keyboards and the latter was mostly dialup; now it's good enough that the global pandemic we just went through had a lot of people switch to remote work — and ask to keep doing that after the pandemic restrictions ended. The tech that enabled the vaccines to be created so fast, or even their genomes to be sequenced so fast, didn't exist in 1999. PV existed in 1999, but there was a total installed nameplate capacity of 0.8 GW; in 2022 that was 1061.7 GW, with an estimated 341-402 GW in 2023 and 600-660 GW this year, likely taking the nameplate capacity over the current total global electricity demand. (The capacity factor was 14% in 2022, so there's room for the nameplate capacity to become 700% of current global electrical demand). 3D printers existed in 1999, but cheap domestic models only happened around the time of RepRap in 2005. Brief period where it seemed everyone was worried about domestic printers making guns, now industrial printers make spaceship engines. AI has gone from "squiggly line under a mis-spelled word", Norns with tiny neural nets, and the state machines of video game NPCs, to what is essentially the character of the main computer on TNG era Star Trek, complete with universal translator, creating interactive NPCs and environments on the fly, and letting us talk to an always-listening microphone when we want to change which music is playing or what mood we want the lights to provide. China has gone from "LOL" to "superpower". North Korea got nukes (and if they can do it, anywhere bigger than a tiny island or a city-state can do it). Pakistan, which has nukes, had a military coup in 1999; 9/11 was a pretty big event that shifted American international behaviour, but the choices the US government made in Iraq and Afghanistan were sufficiently tone-deaf to the locals it likely played a significant role in the rise of ISIS.
- actionfromafar 2y ago
  Re the last sentence, quite an understatement.

ben_w 2y ago

We've had several. The first draft of the Human Genome Project was only published in 2003, but that covered 92% of the genome; it only got up to 99.7% in 2022. Personal genome tests are now regularly on special offer for a few hundred bucks rather than the $2.7 billion (non-inflation adjusted) of the original Human Genome Project. Genetic engineering was possible in 1999, but it wasn't until 2005 that CRISPR was discovered, 2006 that it was theorised how it might function, 2007 that this was demonstrated, 2012 until it was patented, and 2013 until it became commercially viable. Mobiles and the web technically existed in 1999, but the former were mostly black and white screens with number-pad keyboards and the latter was mostly dialup; now it's good enough that the global pandemic we just went through had a lot of people switch to remote work — and ask to keep doing that after the pandemic restrictions ended. The tech that enabled the vaccines to be created so fast, or even their genomes to be sequenced so fast, didn't exist in 1999. PV existed in 1999, but there was a total installed nameplate capacity of 0.8 GW; in 2022 that was 1061.7 GW, with an estimated 341-402 GW in 2023 and 600-660 GW this year, likely taking the nameplate capacity over the current total global electricity demand. (The capacity factor was 14% in 2022, so there's room for the nameplate capacity to become 700% of current global electrical demand). 3D printers existed in 1999, but cheap domestic models only happened around the time of RepRap in 2005. Brief period where it seemed everyone was worried about domestic printers making guns, now industrial printers make spaceship engines. AI has gone from "squiggly line under a mis-spelled word", Norns with tiny neural nets, and the state machines of video game NPCs, to what is essentially the character of the main computer on TNG era Star Trek, complete with universal translator, creating interactive NPCs and environments on the fly, and letting us talk to an always-listening microphone when we want to change which music is playing or what mood we want the lights to provide. China has gone from "LOL" to "superpower". North Korea got nukes (and if they can do it, anywhere bigger than a tiny island or a city-state can do it). Pakistan, which has nukes, had a military coup in 1999; 9/11 was a pretty big event that shifted American international behaviour, but the choices the US government made in Iraq and Afghanistan were sufficiently tone-deaf to the locals it likely played a significant role in the rise of ISIS.

actionfromafar 2y ago
Re the last sentence, quite an understatement.