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It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. It’s much better for the business model if cars don’t need expensive LIDAR to g

It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. It’s much better for the business model if cars don’t need expensive LIDAR to get full self driving. With just cameras, the cost to install them in every car and thus have the ability to sell FSD to every customer is low. With LIDAR you have to make cars with it and without it, and then you can’t sell it like an app to them later. (I suppose you could maybe do something like pre-wire the car for LIDAR and make it easily installable but you’re still probably going to need the user to take the car to the dealer which may be enough friction to reduce sales significantly.)

JohnFen 2y ago
> It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. I don't think he conflates those things in his own mind, only in his rhetoric. In other words, I think that Musk lies when it suits his purposes.
- mattmaroon 2y ago
  I’m not sure. People with reality distortion fields often find themselves with a distorted reality. I am not sure he doesn’t actually believe it.
  - whoitwas 2y ago
    This is reply without understanding. The "reality distortion field" is a web of lies the person convinces themself are true. They still originate as lies. In this case, it's just business. People have a hard on for this guy's word salads because they want it to be true. It sounds cool, and would be. His hype and vision are just marketing to be mostly ignored.
    - mattmaroon 2y ago
      That’s not the definition you find on Wikipedia. It’s a reply without understanding the definition you made up though I suppose. It’s a charisma that convinces other people of what’s true. Elon has that, that’s why said hard on exists. He often turns out to be right.
      - whoitwas 2y ago
        I have no idea what you are referencing on wikipedia. If you think it isn't lies, then you accept he's not very intelligent or at least illogical. The simplest answer is he's voicing his ultimate vision for a product without basis in reality like the solar powered roadster, robotaxis, etx. It's marketing and the result is the same whether he lies or not, only distinction is if he's mentally handicapped or dishonest.
        mattmaroon 2y ago
        He makes a lot of predictions about what he thinks he will be able to accomplish in the future, many of them people think won’t happen, and then they do. That’s the reality distortion field. The Steve Jobs bio covered it well. People often think things can’t work, even past the point at which they do. Like a smart phone with no keyboard. I do not think he’s always truthful by any means. But a failed prediction is not a lie. as the great George Costanza once said, it’s not a lie if you believe it.
        whoitwas 2y ago
        Elon Musk inherited Steve Jobs' distortion field? Did you pass it to him? It's marketing. You're making things very complicated and distorting reality.
        JohnFen 2y ago
        > many of them people think won’t happen, and then they do Not all that many.
        mattmaroon 2y ago
        I mean, he said he could put rockets in space much cheaper than the governments and defense contractors and he did. He said he could build the first new American car company in several decades and get people to want to drive electric cars, both of which seemed insane at the time, and he did. He’s always overly-optimistic about cost and timeline and he’s got a whole host of issues due to his mental illness but the dude did do several extremely impressive things that nobody thought would happen. Compared to what he has accomplished you can understand how “a car can drive itself without LIDAR” seems easily believable. It may be wrong, but it’s not as hard to imagine as Starlink was ten years ago.
Zigurd 2y ago
> It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. This is going to bite him in the ass w.r.t. Starship, too: Rapid reusability, return to launch site, and in orbit refueling are just the major aspects of a dependency hairball in Starship. Either it all works, or none of it works well enough to actually be more efficient than a non-reusable second stage.

JohnFen 2y ago

> It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. I don't think he conflates those things in his own mind, only in his rhetoric. In other words, I think that Musk lies when it suits his purposes.

mattmaroon 2y ago
I’m not sure. People with reality distortion fields often find themselves with a distorted reality. I am not sure he doesn’t actually believe it.
- whoitwas 2y ago
  This is reply without understanding. The "reality distortion field" is a web of lies the person convinces themself are true. They still originate as lies. In this case, it's just business. People have a hard on for this guy's word salads because they want it to be true. It sounds cool, and would be. His hype and vision are just marketing to be mostly ignored.
  - mattmaroon 2y ago
    That’s not the definition you find on Wikipedia. It’s a reply without understanding the definition you made up though I suppose. It’s a charisma that convinces other people of what’s true. Elon has that, that’s why said hard on exists. He often turns out to be right.
    - whoitwas 2y ago
      I have no idea what you are referencing on wikipedia. If you think it isn't lies, then you accept he's not very intelligent or at least illogical. The simplest answer is he's voicing his ultimate vision for a product without basis in reality like the solar powered roadster, robotaxis, etx. It's marketing and the result is the same whether he lies or not, only distinction is if he's mentally handicapped or dishonest.
      - mattmaroon 2y ago
        He makes a lot of predictions about what he thinks he will be able to accomplish in the future, many of them people think won’t happen, and then they do. That’s the reality distortion field. The Steve Jobs bio covered it well. People often think things can’t work, even past the point at which they do. Like a smart phone with no keyboard. I do not think he’s always truthful by any means. But a failed prediction is not a lie. as the great George Costanza once said, it’s not a lie if you believe it.
        whoitwas 2y ago
        Elon Musk inherited Steve Jobs' distortion field? Did you pass it to him? It's marketing. You're making things very complicated and distorting reality.
        JohnFen 2y ago
        > many of them people think won’t happen, and then they do Not all that many.
        mattmaroon 2y ago
        I mean, he said he could put rockets in space much cheaper than the governments and defense contractors and he did. He said he could build the first new American car company in several decades and get people to want to drive electric cars, both of which seemed insane at the time, and he did. He’s always overly-optimistic about cost and timeline and he’s got a whole host of issues due to his mental illness but the dude did do several extremely impressive things that nobody thought would happen. Compared to what he has accomplished you can understand how “a car can drive itself without LIDAR” seems easily believable. It may be wrong, but it’s not as hard to imagine as Starlink was ten years ago.

Zigurd 2y ago

> It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. This is going to bite him in the ass w.r.t. Starship, too: Rapid reusability, return to launch site, and in orbit refueling are just the major aspects of a dependency hairball in Starship. Either it all works, or none of it works well enough to actually be more efficient than a non-reusable second stage.