4 ms·

I agree. It's technically impossible to solve and that's why Waymo has had success and Tesla never will (with the current hardware).

KingOfCoders 2y ago
I wonder if, contrary to all Musk said, the Robotaxi will have Lidar and what Tesla buyers feel then. Because each Robotaxi is 23/7 on the road and will see much more usage compared to a car, so there should be more incidents per car, with an - assumed - increase in Robotaxis we'll see an significant increase in incidents. Also Robotaxi customers might complain more - or sue - compared to Tesla owners.
- whoitwas 2y ago
  Why should anyone believe Musk? He promised a solar powered Tesla coup in 2008, and the stories have only become wilder since. I think robotaxi is the same sort of fantasy.
- candiddevmike 2y ago
  This post assumes Robotaxi is a real thing and not another "high concept" lie.
mattmaroon 2y ago
It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. It’s much better for the business model if cars don’t need expensive LIDAR to get full self driving. With just cameras, the cost to install them in every car and thus have the ability to sell FSD to every customer is low. With LIDAR you have to make cars with it and without it, and then you can’t sell it like an app to them later. (I suppose you could maybe do something like pre-wire the car for LIDAR and make it easily installable but you’re still probably going to need the user to take the car to the dealer which may be enough friction to reduce sales significantly.)
- JohnFen 2y ago
  > It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. I don't think he conflates those things in his own mind, only in his rhetoric. In other words, I think that Musk lies when it suits his purposes.
  - mattmaroon 2y ago
    I’m not sure. People with reality distortion fields often find themselves with a distorted reality. I am not sure he doesn’t actually believe it.
    - whoitwas 2y ago
      This is reply without understanding. The "reality distortion field" is a web of lies the person convinces themself are true. They still originate as lies. In this case, it's just business. People have a hard on for this guy's word salads because they want it to be true. It sounds cool, and would be. His hype and vision are just marketing to be mostly ignored.
      - mattmaroon 2y ago
        That’s not the definition you find on Wikipedia. It’s a reply without understanding the definition you made up though I suppose. It’s a charisma that convinces other people of what’s true. Elon has that, that’s why said hard on exists. He often turns out to be right.
        whoitwas 2y ago
        I have no idea what you are referencing on wikipedia. If you think it isn't lies, then you accept he's not very intelligent or at least illogical. The simplest answer is he's voicing his ultimate vision for a product without basis in reality like the solar powered roadster, robotaxis, etx. It's marketing and the result is the same whether he lies or not, only distinction is if he's mentally handicapped or dishonest.
Majromax 2y ago
> It's technically impossible to solve It's not technically impossible to solve. Humans drive with vision, audio, and balance inputs, so in extremis if you want a self-driving car you can hire a chauffeur. However, no matter how easy or difficult it is to drive with vision alone, more data is better: driving with vision plus lidar will be easier. Tesla's mistake seems to be relentless optimism. If self driving were simple, then it'd be here today and the market would be competing on how to add it to cars with minimal additional cost. There, the data-light method would have an advantage. Yet self-driving is not in fact here, and for equal capital investments a company like Waymo using sensor fusion will probably get there before Tesla.
- ben_w 2y ago
  The obvious counterpoint being that while humans can drive cars, part of the narrative for self-driving AI is how often we crash them and kill people in the process, and one of the advantages an AI could have is integration of so many more sensor modalities than mere humans. (Other advantages, such as "never gets drunk, tired, or distracted" would still apply, but are not necessarily sufficient).
- viraptor 2y ago
  > Humans drive with vision, audio, and balance input And they also make mistakes. Human driving is "impossible to solve" too. And it's not even about experience and individual abilities. Visual illusions can happen to anyone if they're unlucky - one night I had to convince myself to drive "into the wall", because my brain decided the hole under a bridge was a wall and the bridge was empty space due to colours being just right. You can't avoid that whether the driving system is software or wetware.
  - genewitch 2y ago
    tesla et al don't "remember" anything, whereas we do. For you to think there was actually a wall there you'd have to assume you either missed the signs saying the road was closed or someone had stolen all the signs and you're the first person to be caught in their trap. a self driving (or even self-stopping/accident avoidant) car does not remember it didn't see any signs saying road closure, it can only go off what is in front of it. whenever i watch the videos of the FSD screen in traffic, you see things popping in and out of existence. This, to me, is why "FSD" cannot be better than a human, even with advanced sensors. Maybe if all cars were networked, but guess what, i will never own one, i'll buy old cars until they outlaw it, and then i'll probably sit in my house and wait to die. But until "non-network equipped cars are banned nationwide for any purpose" what do you propose? Also this was on the front page on my phone's app, but it wasn't on the first 5 pages on the website - is this whitewashing by someone at HN or what?

KingOfCoders 2y ago

I wonder if, contrary to all Musk said, the Robotaxi will have Lidar and what Tesla buyers feel then. Because each Robotaxi is 23/7 on the road and will see much more usage compared to a car, so there should be more incidents per car, with an - assumed - increase in Robotaxis we'll see an significant increase in incidents. Also Robotaxi customers might complain more - or sue - compared to Tesla owners.

whoitwas 2y ago
Why should anyone believe Musk? He promised a solar powered Tesla coup in 2008, and the stories have only become wilder since. I think robotaxi is the same sort of fantasy.
candiddevmike 2y ago
This post assumes Robotaxi is a real thing and not another "high concept" lie.

mattmaroon 2y ago

It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. It’s much better for the business model if cars don’t need expensive LIDAR to get full self driving. With just cameras, the cost to install them in every car and thus have the ability to sell FSD to every customer is low. With LIDAR you have to make cars with it and without it, and then you can’t sell it like an app to them later. (I suppose you could maybe do something like pre-wire the car for LIDAR and make it easily installable but you’re still probably going to need the user to take the car to the dealer which may be enough friction to reduce sales significantly.)

JohnFen 2y ago
> It seems like Elon conflates what he wants to be true and what is actually true. I don't think he conflates those things in his own mind, only in his rhetoric. In other words, I think that Musk lies when it suits his purposes.
- mattmaroon 2y ago
  I’m not sure. People with reality distortion fields often find themselves with a distorted reality. I am not sure he doesn’t actually believe it.
  - whoitwas 2y ago
    This is reply without understanding. The "reality distortion field" is a web of lies the person convinces themself are true. They still originate as lies. In this case, it's just business. People have a hard on for this guy's word salads because they want it to be true. It sounds cool, and would be. His hype and vision are just marketing to be mostly ignored.
    - mattmaroon 2y ago
      That’s not the definition you find on Wikipedia. It’s a reply without understanding the definition you made up though I suppose. It’s a charisma that convinces other people of what’s true. Elon has that, that’s why said hard on exists. He often turns out to be right.
      - whoitwas 2y ago
        I have no idea what you are referencing on wikipedia. If you think it isn't lies, then you accept he's not very intelligent or at least illogical. The simplest answer is he's voicing his ultimate vision for a product without basis in reality like the solar powered roadster, robotaxis, etx. It's marketing and the result is the same whether he lies or not, only distinction is if he's mentally handicapped or dishonest.

Majromax 2y ago

> It's technically impossible to solve It's not technically impossible to solve. Humans drive with vision, audio, and balance inputs, so in extremis if you want a self-driving car you can hire a chauffeur. However, no matter how easy or difficult it is to drive with vision alone, more data is better: driving with vision plus lidar will be easier. Tesla's mistake seems to be relentless optimism. If self driving were simple, then it'd be here today and the market would be competing on how to add it to cars with minimal additional cost. There, the data-light method would have an advantage. Yet self-driving is not in fact here, and for equal capital investments a company like Waymo using sensor fusion will probably get there before Tesla.

ben_w 2y ago
The obvious counterpoint being that while humans can drive cars, part of the narrative for self-driving AI is how often we crash them and kill people in the process, and one of the advantages an AI could have is integration of so many more sensor modalities than mere humans. (Other advantages, such as "never gets drunk, tired, or distracted" would still apply, but are not necessarily sufficient).
viraptor 2y ago
> Humans drive with vision, audio, and balance input And they also make mistakes. Human driving is "impossible to solve" too. And it's not even about experience and individual abilities. Visual illusions can happen to anyone if they're unlucky - one night I had to convince myself to drive "into the wall", because my brain decided the hole under a bridge was a wall and the bridge was empty space due to colours being just right. You can't avoid that whether the driving system is software or wetware.
- genewitch 2y ago
  tesla et al don't "remember" anything, whereas we do. For you to think there was actually a wall there you'd have to assume you either missed the signs saying the road was closed or someone had stolen all the signs and you're the first person to be caught in their trap. a self driving (or even self-stopping/accident avoidant) car does not remember it didn't see any signs saying road closure, it can only go off what is in front of it. whenever i watch the videos of the FSD screen in traffic, you see things popping in and out of existence. This, to me, is why "FSD" cannot be better than a human, even with advanced sensors. Maybe if all cars were networked, but guess what, i will never own one, i'll buy old cars until they outlaw it, and then i'll probably sit in my house and wait to die. But until "non-network equipped cars are banned nationwide for any purpose" what do you propose? Also this was on the front page on my phone's app, but it wasn't on the first 5 pages on the website - is this whitewashing by someone at HN or what?