3 ms·

Well, the book came out in 2021, prior to recent AI developments - the cutting edge of which are almost entirely in the US. The location where chips are produce

Well, the book came out in 2021, prior to recent AI developments - the cutting edge of which are almost entirely in the US. The location where chips are produced is a relevant discussion point to have here though. In general these “trends indicate the future will be X” analyses aren’t a new thing (see for example Cliodynamics [1.]) and they often underestimate how history can hinge on a few specific decisions. A few different decisions throughout the 90s would have brought Russia into the EU and Western world and not in the direction it’s headed nowadays. With Dalio specifically, I think it’s a mistake to focus on the nation state as the end-all in political organization. IMO it is better to look at global systems in terms of capital interconnectivity. Various attempts have been made to combat this throughout history by creating closed systems (Napoleon’s continental system or the USSR as prime examples) and they don't work. The states that are open and fluid seem to outcompete ones that aren’t. Were China attempting to be a USA of Asia, I think they would absolutely become the economic center of the world. But they seem to be headed in the exact opposite direction - they aren’t culturally and economically absorbing nearby states like the USA is, they’re becoming increasingly hostile. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cliodynamics

ako 2y ago
Do you have any insights on AI developments inside china that those outside of china might not be aware of?
- keiferski 2y ago
  Me personally no, but this guy probably does: https://chinai.substack.com/ https://chinai.substack.com/
fallingknife 2y ago
> A few different decisions throughout the 90s would have brought Russia into the EU and Western world and not in the direction it’s headed nowadays. That's quite a claim. What evidence do you have that a few simple decisions could have reversed the last several hundred years of Russian geopolitics being focused on westward expansion?
- keiferski 2y ago
  Well I didn’t say “simple”, I said a few decisions. I think if America had acted differently, and if the transition to capitalism had gone differently, it’s not a stretch that Russia would be more aligned with Western Europe. Here’s an interesting answer about how capitalism was implemented in Poland vs. Russia, that is relevant. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/ayjz4d/why_was_polands_transition_to_capitalism_so_much/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/ayjz4d/why_w... Clinton himself also expressed regrets at the way the relationship progressed. https://www.rferl.org/a/declassified-clinton-memo-russian-relations/32455950.html https://www.rferl.org/a/declassified-clinton-memo-russian-re... Overall it’s a long answer and would also include things like the established bureaucracy in Washington being comprised of Cold Warriors, the US bombing of Serbia (a long time Russian ally) during the Yugoslav wars, and a number of other geopolitical decisions. And while you’re right that Russian imperial ambitions were their dominant foreign policy, don’t forget that they also looked West for cultural leadership - many of the Romanovs spoke French as a first language, and the existence of Petersburg is entirely a Westernization project. I think it’s more accurate to describe Russian history as a battle between Westernizers and non-Westernizers, and it could have gone the other way very plausibly.
  - fallingknife 2y ago
    But your own solution brings up the very same problem. You talk about the bombing of Serbia as something that caused this. But the alternative is to not intervene in Serbia because we recognize a Russian sphere of influence there. That is entirely the root of the problem. Russia wants a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and that is not acceptable to any of the countries there or NATO allies in Western Europe. The only ways to ally with Russia and Western Europe simultaneously are to either get Western Europe to agree to a Russian sphere to their east (impossible after the USSR fell), or to get Russia to accept that it is no longer a great power and rather simply the equal of France or Germany and therefore not entitled to its sphere of influence as the US is. None of the things you bring up address this fundamental conflict.
    - keiferski 2y ago

ako 2y ago

Do you have any insights on AI developments inside china that those outside of china might not be aware of?

keiferski 2y ago
Me personally no, but this guy probably does: https://chinai.substack.com/ https://chinai.substack.com/

fallingknife 2y ago

> A few different decisions throughout the 90s would have brought Russia into the EU and Western world and not in the direction it’s headed nowadays. That's quite a claim. What evidence do you have that a few simple decisions could have reversed the last several hundred years of Russian geopolitics being focused on westward expansion?

keiferski 2y ago
Well I didn’t say “simple”, I said a few decisions. I think if America had acted differently, and if the transition to capitalism had gone differently, it’s not a stretch that Russia would be more aligned with Western Europe. Here’s an interesting answer about how capitalism was implemented in Poland vs. Russia, that is relevant. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/ayjz4d/why_was_polands_transition_to_capitalism_so_much/ https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/ayjz4d/why_w... Clinton himself also expressed regrets at the way the relationship progressed. https://www.rferl.org/a/declassified-clinton-memo-russian-relations/32455950.html https://www.rferl.org/a/declassified-clinton-memo-russian-re... Overall it’s a long answer and would also include things like the established bureaucracy in Washington being comprised of Cold Warriors, the US bombing of Serbia (a long time Russian ally) during the Yugoslav wars, and a number of other geopolitical decisions. And while you’re right that Russian imperial ambitions were their dominant foreign policy, don’t forget that they also looked West for cultural leadership - many of the Romanovs spoke French as a first language, and the existence of Petersburg is entirely a Westernization project. I think it’s more accurate to describe Russian history as a battle between Westernizers and non-Westernizers, and it could have gone the other way very plausibly.
- fallingknife 2y ago
  But your own solution brings up the very same problem. You talk about the bombing of Serbia as something that caused this. But the alternative is to not intervene in Serbia because we recognize a Russian sphere of influence there. That is entirely the root of the problem. Russia wants a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and that is not acceptable to any of the countries there or NATO allies in Western Europe. The only ways to ally with Russia and Western Europe simultaneously are to either get Western Europe to agree to a Russian sphere to their east (impossible after the USSR fell), or to get Russia to accept that it is no longer a great power and rather simply the equal of France or Germany and therefore not entitled to its sphere of influence as the US is. None of the things you bring up address this fundamental conflict.
  - keiferski 2y ago