3 ms·

Many technologies are developed long before they are viable because they have military value. Access to space is currently a major national security issue, so a

Many technologies are developed long before they are viable because they have military value. Access to space is currently a major national security issue, so a space elevator could be a manhattan project. Some technologies are developed by the free market before they are economically viable too. LEO constellations for instance (both the original - iridium, and starlink).

schiffern 2y ago
>developed by the free market >iridium For some reason I was skeptical of this (suspiciously tidy) myth-making, and the more I look into it the more I'm convinced I was right to be skeptical. Turns out the relevant engineers -- Ken Peterson and Ray Leopold -- both worked on military and government communications systems immediately prior to being hired at Motorola and starting the Iridium project. Peterson's bio is rather vague on timelines[0], but available information on Leopold indicates he joined Motorola in 1987[1] (directly from the Air Force Electronic Systems Division,[2] which develops communication systems), which is the same year he and Peterson started work on Iridium.[3] This has all the hallmarks of one of those nice neat (and of course plausibly deniable) tech transfers from military/taxpayer dollars, complete with the cute official origin story featuring a C-suite executive's wife. [0] https://www.tributearchive.com/obituaries/25954530/ken-peterson https://www.tributearchive.com/obituaries/25954530/ken-peter... [1] https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/16-886-air-transportation-systems-architecting-spring-2004/473718b4c5f8d9b64cba2f56413c12a0_h16rayleopoldbio.pdf https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/16-886-air-transportation-system... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_Systems_Center https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_Systems_Center [3] https://www.laits.utexas.edu/~anorman/long.extra/Student.F98/Iridium/Frames/FirstRight.html https://www.laits.utexas.edu/~anorman/long.extra/Student.F98...
- richk449 2y ago
  Pretty much everything that has to do with space was first developed by governments for military purposes. Rockets, satellites, communications, imaging, etc. I think your point supports the general thesis that many technologies are developed before they are economically viable.
  - schiffern 2y ago
    Definitely agree! Just observing that when the credit line is "some technologies are developed by the free market," people seem inclined to forget that part. Cheers
  - simne 2y ago
    > Pretty much everything that has to do with space was first developed by governments for military purposes. Rockets, satellites, communications, imaging, etc. No. First works on rockets was conduct by free market, even British Interplanetary Society designed flight to Moon (1938) and Lunar Space Suit (1940), unfortunately these works stay plans. BIS said, this is because too strict British regulations. https://www.bis-space.com/technical-projects/ https://www.bis-space.com/technical-projects/ It is just coincidence, in Germany made first space scale rocket (A-4) and Soviets made first satellite. Planned first satellite was Vanguard, born in civilian American Rocket Society and used civilian sounding rockets rather than military missiles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Vanguard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Vanguard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rocket_Society https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rocket_Society Just after Soviets demonstrate first satellite launch and huge for that time ICBM R-7, US government joined space race and participated in it until Russians shown interest fall After Russians avoid to show something similar to Apollo program, US government cancelled next launches and switched to minimalist space program, just to support lead in space, because of military considerations.
    - simne 2y ago
      BTW Elon Musk space program was not first commercial program. Before him exists at least one program with sounding rockets and one with mega-cannon. Unfortunately, Western governments for understandable reasons fear to accept 3rd world countries to develop such programs, because of non-proliferation of mass destruction weapons. So, when programs eventually moved to 3rd world countries (due to lack of interest in developed countries), Western governments used brute force to cancel them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTRAG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTRAG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Bull https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Bull
simne 2y ago
Iridium considered to be viable, it's just late for few years, when already appear affordable global GSM roaming, when Iridium literally made to be very similar to satellite GSM. Starlink is totally different beast, as it is magnitudes faster than GSM and literally belongs to broadband Internet, when have virtually global coverage (yes, exists 4G and even 5G, but they don't have global coverage now). These are somewhere similar to cryptocurrencies, which lose 1st world (and most important market), because created by scientists of 1st world, to solve problems which are not important for first world, and 2nd/3rd worlds are not capable to maintain sustainable development/support of crypto-technologies. So from first look could appear as cryptocurrencies are not economically viable at all, but I think, their real problem, that 2nd/3rd worlds are too fragmented to gather resources need to develop solution of their problems, not just be involved in works of 1st world developers.

schiffern 2y ago

>developed by the free market >iridium For some reason I was skeptical of this (suspiciously tidy) myth-making, and the more I look into it the more I'm convinced I was right to be skeptical. Turns out the relevant engineers -- Ken Peterson and Ray Leopold -- both worked on military and government communications systems immediately prior to being hired at Motorola and starting the Iridium project. Peterson's bio is rather vague on timelines[0], but available information on Leopold indicates he joined Motorola in 1987[1] (directly from the Air Force Electronic Systems Division,[2] which develops communication systems), which is the same year he and Peterson started work on Iridium.[3] This has all the hallmarks of one of those nice neat (and of course plausibly deniable) tech transfers from military/taxpayer dollars, complete with the cute official origin story featuring a C-suite executive's wife. [0] https://www.tributearchive.com/obituaries/25954530/ken-peterson https://www.tributearchive.com/obituaries/25954530/ken-peter... [1] https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/16-886-air-transportation-systems-architecting-spring-2004/473718b4c5f8d9b64cba2f56413c12a0_h16rayleopoldbio.pdf https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/16-886-air-transportation-system... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_Systems_Center https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_Systems_Center [3] https://www.laits.utexas.edu/~anorman/long.extra/Student.F98/Iridium/Frames/FirstRight.html https://www.laits.utexas.edu/~anorman/long.extra/Student.F98...

richk449 2y ago
Pretty much everything that has to do with space was first developed by governments for military purposes. Rockets, satellites, communications, imaging, etc. I think your point supports the general thesis that many technologies are developed before they are economically viable.
- schiffern 2y ago
  Definitely agree! Just observing that when the credit line is "some technologies are developed by the free market," people seem inclined to forget that part. Cheers
- simne 2y ago
  > Pretty much everything that has to do with space was first developed by governments for military purposes. Rockets, satellites, communications, imaging, etc. No. First works on rockets was conduct by free market, even British Interplanetary Society designed flight to Moon (1938) and Lunar Space Suit (1940), unfortunately these works stay plans. BIS said, this is because too strict British regulations. https://www.bis-space.com/technical-projects/ https://www.bis-space.com/technical-projects/ It is just coincidence, in Germany made first space scale rocket (A-4) and Soviets made first satellite. Planned first satellite was Vanguard, born in civilian American Rocket Society and used civilian sounding rockets rather than military missiles. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Vanguard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Vanguard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rocket_Society https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Rocket_Society Just after Soviets demonstrate first satellite launch and huge for that time ICBM R-7, US government joined space race and participated in it until Russians shown interest fall After Russians avoid to show something similar to Apollo program, US government cancelled next launches and switched to minimalist space program, just to support lead in space, because of military considerations.
  - simne 2y ago
    BTW Elon Musk space program was not first commercial program. Before him exists at least one program with sounding rockets and one with mega-cannon. Unfortunately, Western governments for understandable reasons fear to accept 3rd world countries to develop such programs, because of non-proliferation of mass destruction weapons. So, when programs eventually moved to 3rd world countries (due to lack of interest in developed countries), Western governments used brute force to cancel them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTRAG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTRAG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Bull https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Bull

simne 2y ago

Iridium considered to be viable, it's just late for few years, when already appear affordable global GSM roaming, when Iridium literally made to be very similar to satellite GSM. Starlink is totally different beast, as it is magnitudes faster than GSM and literally belongs to broadband Internet, when have virtually global coverage (yes, exists 4G and even 5G, but they don't have global coverage now). These are somewhere similar to cryptocurrencies, which lose 1st world (and most important market), because created by scientists of 1st world, to solve problems which are not important for first world, and 2nd/3rd worlds are not capable to maintain sustainable development/support of crypto-technologies. So from first look could appear as cryptocurrencies are not economically viable at all, but I think, their real problem, that 2nd/3rd worlds are too fragmented to gather resources need to develop solution of their problems, not just be involved in works of 1st world developers.