4 ms·
I believe Elliott is accurate that there is valuation bubble for key AI companies, however, I think it is important to note that this valuation has little to d
by waffletower 2y ago
I believe Elliott is accurate that there is valuation bubble for key AI companies, however, I think it is important to note that this valuation has little to do with the actual performance and prospects of the companies and technology involved, particularly Nvidia, in the near term (2-3 years). The bubble exists from trader behavior -- the valuations have reached heights where stock investors are now rotating out of AI positions in significant numbers. This aggressive valuation growth spanned roughly a year, a duration significantly shorter from the capital purchases schedule for AI investments made by companies making significant AI data center investments.
Nvidia's quarterly earnings report later this month will probably indicate more growth -- the actual health of their business is immaterial and separate from the speculative valuations of their stock value. It is important to see the two as distinct and largely disconnected. Wall Street has little cognizance of the actual value of AI, and neither do we, Apple's consumer AI foray hasn't even been released -- yet the traders are done and investing elsewhere. Wall Street is extraordinarily myopic and divorced from the actual market time scales at play here.