Nvidia risk is all about the stability (or not) of their monopoly. How quickly or effectively will model creators be able to make their vertically integrated c

Nvidia risk is all about the stability (or not) of their monopoly. How quickly or effectively will model creators be able to make their vertically integrated custom training hardware is an open question and determines how you should bet imo. Nvidia is trying to make themselves a vertically integrated product with a necessary software layer on top, but it’s not obvious if that will succeed or if it’s enough of a moat to hold on to the monopoly long term with the incentives as they are. Intelligent software is such an obvious capability shift that its dismissal as overhyped is dumb. The web was known to be a big deal in the 90s but it was still hard to bet on and in 99 you would have lost a lot of money in most cases. Does that mean the web was overhyped? Enormous value will be created and captured - Nvidia has a monopoly now, if you think it’s resilient you should buy but it’s unclear how resilient it really is and it could drop in the short term either way. Major shifts are hard to bet on. Even obvious bets like Amazon in 99 you’d have to have waited a long time to 10x your initial investment. My personal take was I bought Nvidia when this seemed obvious a year ago and sold it when it hit 3T. It seemed clear it’d capture all the value on training in the short term, but I’m less certain about the future and 3T is a lot.