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> weather models missed the rapid intensification of hurricane Otis last year Which happened because there was very little data to feed into the models. AI is
by Kon-Peki 2y ago
> weather models missed the rapid intensification of hurricane Otis last year
Which happened because there was very little data to feed into the models. AI isn't going to help with this. The Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico have tons of data-collecting bouys and the Hurricane Hunter aircraft fly from the eastern US. Hurricane Hunters that go to the Pacific fly out of Mississippi, which adds quite a lot of latency to the data collection probes.
We should be adding more bouys to the Pacific, and need to add a Hurricane Hunter crew in San Diego (or perhaps the government of Mexico would like to host and pay for them).
Then we can start seeing what the models and AI will do.
- Majromax 2y agoI'm not up to date on the latest literature re: the Otis miss. Is the conventional thought that the ocean was in fact warmer than the models supposed, either at the surface or with a warmer upper-mixed layer? If the problem was lack of constraint from data, this is still fixable in a probabilistic sense: we'd "just" (noting it's not that simple) need to assume more variability in ocean conditions in data-poor regions.