4 ms·

IMO, gpt-4 level is the base building block. It's then a race to get this basic thing out for cheaper and more reliable. GPT-4 is someone with IQ 120 or so and

by muzani 2y ago

IMO, gpt-4 level is the base building block. It's then a race to get this basic thing out for cheaper and more reliable. GPT-4 is someone with IQ 120 or so and people are happy with that. It makes as many mistakes as an above average person. It's a general purpose AI and like a CPU, you can use it for general purpose stuff. I doubt smarter AI would be better. People will go back to assuming it's omniscient then get disillusioned when it's not. The race will go back to training. Not models, but training the AI like it's a person. How would you train a junior copywriter who graduated with straight A's? The junior Kotlin developer who memorizes the manual inside out then picks the wrong architecture? I think what we'll see is services being scaled. Back then, if you wanted to scale, you'd make a product. But then you got Jenny from legal, top 1% in employment law, runs her own blog, charges millions per year but only a few clients at a time. She can train Jenny AI, somewhere top 20% in the country who'd charge less. You'll see Marie AI giving suggestions on how to tidy up your house without needing an actual Marie. Marie wrote a best selling book and has a best selling TV series, but who reads books? The AI version will also be able to give more attention that these individuals can't. On the darker side, we'll also see voice actors being replaced by deepfakes. Idk if it'll burst the bubble though. It will probably shift it to another group.

onecommentman 2y ago
I think you have to distinguish between supply-push services and demand-pull services. People will pay big money for demand-pull (I have a problem and you will solve it) and a little money to supply-push (Here are some words that I sell you and that might help you). AI can probably do supply-push well, but will find it a real struggle to address demand-pull. Your customer may only have a 100 IQ, but regarding their specific problems they have a 200 IQ, and your 120 IQ AI attempting to solve their specific problems will end up frustrating, angering and eventually just disgusting the customer.
- muzani 2y ago
  That's the point, yeah? AI will convert a lot of things from demand-pull to supply-push. That's where the hype is. It's going to lower pay for a ton of people. That's where the hate is. That's why there was a writer's strike last year. That's why artists have been boycotting everything made after 2020. People aren't disgusted that the AI solves a problem, they're disgusted because they linked their identities to the way a problem is solved. Taxi drivers are still disgusted by Waze, Uber drivers less so.
  - c1sc0 2y ago
    “Linked their identities to X” is the key behavior to understand here. A lot of creative people have linked their identities to activities that are low on the food chain for AI. The close-minded creatives will resist AI because it threatens the identities they built for themselves, the open-minded ones will embrace AI as a tool to increase their creativity.

by muzani 2y ago

onecommentman 2y ago

I think you have to distinguish between supply-push services and demand-pull services. People will pay big money for demand-pull (I have a problem and you will solve it) and a little money to supply-push (Here are some words that I sell you and that might help you). AI can probably do supply-push well, but will find it a real struggle to address demand-pull. Your customer may only have a 100 IQ, but regarding their specific problems they have a 200 IQ, and your 120 IQ AI attempting to solve their specific problems will end up frustrating, angering and eventually just disgusting the customer.

muzani 2y ago
That's the point, yeah? AI will convert a lot of things from demand-pull to supply-push. That's where the hype is. It's going to lower pay for a ton of people. That's where the hate is. That's why there was a writer's strike last year. That's why artists have been boycotting everything made after 2020. People aren't disgusted that the AI solves a problem, they're disgusted because they linked their identities to the way a problem is solved. Taxi drivers are still disgusted by Waze, Uber drivers less so.
- c1sc0 2y ago
  “Linked their identities to X” is the key behavior to understand here. A lot of creative people have linked their identities to activities that are low on the food chain for AI. The close-minded creatives will resist AI because it threatens the identities they built for themselves, the open-minded ones will embrace AI as a tool to increase their creativity.