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Exactly my point, thanks! This form of analysis has been used to verify the validity of past election results. All were within 2 points of forecasts based on t
by culi 2y ago
Exactly my point, thanks!
This form of analysis has been used to verify the validity of past election results. All were within 2 points of forecasts based on this data.
We still don't have enough results to do this type of analysis yet, but we surely will eventually. The group that did the analysis you're linking is AltaVista. They are linked with the opposition, but their same analysis validated past results. Their current analysis obviously doesn't but they also admit that their sample is biased towards anti-Maduro centers.
My main point in responding to GP was to point out that it'd be impossible for Maduro to prevent this type of independent analysis
- berdario 2y agohttps://resultadosconvzla.com/ https://resultadosconvzla.com/ Claims Actas digitalizadas: 24.576 (81,85%) > Their current analysis obviously doesn't but they also admit that their sample is biased towards anti-Maduro centers. If that's true, 81% of the total would already be quite representative (and less subject to be biased by anti-Maduro constituencies being overrrepresented)
- culi 2y agoThese are forecasts based on pictures of ballot tallies. And this website is made by the opposition. I'm not saying they're wrong, I just think it's silly to take their word for it instead of just waiting until we have more data and these results have been looked over by independent parties
- akdev1l 2y agoThose are not “forecasts”. Those are actual counts based on the records they have (80% of all records). There is no forecasting being done, they simply counted the votes from the voting records.
- culi 2y agoThey have to forecast to make up for records they do not have. Otherwise they can just pick the 80% that are most likely to vote the way they want