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Yeah, and Hitler said he was a national socialist. We don't need to judge truth based on the words found in random twitter bios. We can judge Maduro based on

Yeah, and Hitler said he was a national socialist. We don't need to judge truth based on the words found in random twitter bios. We can judge Maduro based on his actions- disappearing the opposition leader and permanently hiding local election tallies are not the actions of someone who trusts vindication by a fair and open system.

tptacek 2y ago
You're doing it too. You don't have to work this out in a chain of steps from first principles. Just look at the numbers.
culi 2y ago
Each local voting location prints out its own ballot results. These are available to any local who wants to see them. Independent analyzers are putting together photos of these print-outs right now to try to confirm or challenge the results as we speak. As in the US, independent citizens volunteer to run and oversee these ballot locations. It would be impossible for Maduro to "permanently [hide] local election tallies"
- akdev1l 2y ago
  There is a literal website posted by the opposition. 1. Aggregated reports: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ https://resultadosconvzla.com/ 2. Raw images of the voting records: https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/ https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/ The second requires a Venezuelan ID as input as it will identify the specific voting record for the person. I gathered all the records and put them in an archive: https://public.akdev.xyz/ganovzla2024.tar.gz https://public.akdev.xyz/ganovzla2024.tar.gz The voting records are present, you can feel free to analyze them. Someone already did analyze the data here: https://x.com/rusosnith/status/1818457492893884814?t=BtVOVhDMajfutRMtMrkZ2A&s=19 https://x.com/rusosnith/status/1818457492893884814?t=BtVOVhD...
  - culi 2y ago
    Exactly my point, thanks! This form of analysis has been used to verify the validity of past election results. All were within 2 points of forecasts based on this data. We still don't have enough results to do this type of analysis yet, but we surely will eventually. The group that did the analysis you're linking is AltaVista. They are linked with the opposition, but their same analysis validated past results. Their current analysis obviously doesn't but they also admit that their sample is biased towards anti-Maduro centers. My main point in responding to GP was to point out that it'd be impossible for Maduro to prevent this type of independent analysis
    - berdario 2y ago
      https://resultadosconvzla.com/ https://resultadosconvzla.com/ Claims Actas digitalizadas: 24.576 (81,85%) > Their current analysis obviously doesn't but they also admit that their sample is biased towards anti-Maduro centers. If that's true, 81% of the total would already be quite representative (and less subject to be biased by anti-Maduro constituencies being overrrepresented)
      - culi 2y ago
        These are forecasts based on pictures of ballot tallies. And this website is made by the opposition. I'm not saying they're wrong, I just think it's silly to take their word for it instead of just waiting until we have more data and these results have been looked over by independent parties
        akdev1l 2y ago
        Those are not “forecasts”. Those are actual counts based on the records they have (80% of all records). There is no forecasting being done, they simply counted the votes from the voting records.
        culi 2y ago
        They have to forecast to make up for records they do not have. Otherwise they can just pick the 80% that are most likely to vote the way they want

tptacek 2y ago

You're doing it too. You don't have to work this out in a chain of steps from first principles. Just look at the numbers.

culi 2y ago

Each local voting location prints out its own ballot results. These are available to any local who wants to see them. Independent analyzers are putting together photos of these print-outs right now to try to confirm or challenge the results as we speak. As in the US, independent citizens volunteer to run and oversee these ballot locations. It would be impossible for Maduro to "permanently [hide] local election tallies"

akdev1l 2y ago
There is a literal website posted by the opposition. 1. Aggregated reports: https://resultadosconvzla.com/ https://resultadosconvzla.com/ 2. Raw images of the voting records: https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/ https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/ The second requires a Venezuelan ID as input as it will identify the specific voting record for the person. I gathered all the records and put them in an archive: https://public.akdev.xyz/ganovzla2024.tar.gz https://public.akdev.xyz/ganovzla2024.tar.gz The voting records are present, you can feel free to analyze them. Someone already did analyze the data here: https://x.com/rusosnith/status/1818457492893884814?t=BtVOVhDMajfutRMtMrkZ2A&s=19 https://x.com/rusosnith/status/1818457492893884814?t=BtVOVhD...
- culi 2y ago
  Exactly my point, thanks! This form of analysis has been used to verify the validity of past election results. All were within 2 points of forecasts based on this data. We still don't have enough results to do this type of analysis yet, but we surely will eventually. The group that did the analysis you're linking is AltaVista. They are linked with the opposition, but their same analysis validated past results. Their current analysis obviously doesn't but they also admit that their sample is biased towards anti-Maduro centers. My main point in responding to GP was to point out that it'd be impossible for Maduro to prevent this type of independent analysis
  - berdario 2y ago
    https://resultadosconvzla.com/ https://resultadosconvzla.com/ Claims Actas digitalizadas: 24.576 (81,85%) > Their current analysis obviously doesn't but they also admit that their sample is biased towards anti-Maduro centers. If that's true, 81% of the total would already be quite representative (and less subject to be biased by anti-Maduro constituencies being overrrepresented)
    - culi 2y ago
      These are forecasts based on pictures of ballot tallies. And this website is made by the opposition. I'm not saying they're wrong, I just think it's silly to take their word for it instead of just waiting until we have more data and these results have been looked over by independent parties
      - akdev1l 2y ago
        Those are not “forecasts”. Those are actual counts based on the records they have (80% of all records). There is no forecasting being done, they simply counted the votes from the voting records.
        culi 2y ago
        They have to forecast to make up for records they do not have. Otherwise they can just pick the 80% that are most likely to vote the way they want