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Tesla Analyst Nearly Crashes While Using Tesla's 'Full Self-Driving

25 points by doener 2y ago

thoronton 2y ago
So Elon is trying to kill the Tesla investors?
bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
What's the explanation for keeping the hold rating? Some cognitive bias surely.
- altacc 2y ago
  I imagine that as FSD as perceived by the name has never been delivered that has always been factored into analysts decisions. If it was either suddenly either working as expected, or removed from every Tesla, then I imagine there would be an effect on the rating & share price.
- FireBeyond 2y ago
  I'd say more "He realizes FSD is nowhere near ready. He also realizes that there is a not-insignificant part of the populace who believe Musk every time he throws another '3-6 months' out to appease people." so from a financial perspective, it still (unfortunately) makes sense, because no-one with any influence is willing to call out the BS.
  - bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
    I mean yes, of course I agree with you. I just expected a professional analyst to be less reckless, but maybe I'm just naive.
Rinzler89 2y ago
Why isn't it called Tesla Partial Self Driving? Feels like a lot of the media flak they get is self inflicted from using deceptive marketing terms that don't match the real world capabilities of the systems.
- altacc 2y ago
  I think because Tesla's marketing is hyperbolic so that they don't sound like other car manufacturers. They've made automation a large part of Tesla's future offering and have not been able to deliver but strong naming makes it looks like they will soon. "Advanced driver assistance system" simply does not sound as sexy or impressive enough for the shareholders. There are other companies with hands-off, eyes-on systems that don't make it a centerpiece of their offering but are steadily overtaking Tesla in quality, range, volume & capabilities. Maybe we need some legal definitions so that marketing speak doesn't cloud the awareness of drivers of what their car is really capable of.
- lucianbr 2y ago
  Plenty of things are named falsely. It's nothing particular to Tesla, though it does seem they're amongst the best at doing it and making a profit. Why it happens in general? IMHO, not enough negative feedback. People still buy it, both literally and metaphorically.
  - Rinzler89 2y ago
    >Plenty of things are named falsely. It's nothing particular to Tesla Yes, I know, but those other sexy consumer products with optimistic branding can't kill people, that's the difference. Let's stop acting like Tesla is just selling AirPods and can be allowed the same marketing leeway as Apple. Even Apple's branding is never that brash and they don't make 3 tonne electric scythes. It's always abut emotion and magic but it never alures to capabilities it can't deliver.
quitit 2y ago
History of Tesla / Musk on FSD. While one can be forgiving to the earlier days, at this stage Musk is certainly aware that he is lying. 1. September 2013 “will be responsible for developing vehicle-level decision-making and lateral and longitudinal control strategies for Tesla’s effort to pioneer fully automated driving” 2. September 2014 Tesla CEO Musk Sees Fully Autonomous Car Ready in Five or Six Years. “They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame.” 3. December 2015 “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” 4. January 2016 “In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you’re in LA and the car is in NY” 5. June 2016 “I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year” 6. October 2016 “By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.” 7. October 2016 “Tesla drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot” https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-teslas https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-... 8. October 2016 “When searching for parking, the car reads the signs to see if it is allowed to park there, which is why it skipped the disabled spot” 9. October 2016 “When you want your car to return, tap Summon on your phone. It will eventually find you even if you are on the other side of the country” 10. October 2016 “yes” (in reply to the system being able to understand complicated road signs) 11. October 2016 (video in reference to automated charging) 12. January 2017 Question: “At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from?” Musk’s answer: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely” 13. January 2017 “The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year.” 14. March 2017 “I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years” 15. May 2017 “Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.” 16. March 2018 “I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.” 17. November 2018 “Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators” 18. January 2019 “We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that.” 19. February 2019 “We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I’m certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year” 20. April 2019 “I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I’d be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)” 21. April 2019 “We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.” 22. May 2019 “We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too” 23. April 2020 “Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown” 24. April 2020 “we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.” 25. July 2020 “I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there’s the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.” 26. October 2020 “FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.” 27. December 2020 “I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.” 28. December 2020 “I’m extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%” 29. January 2021 “Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.” 30. January 2021 “FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021” 31. March 2021 “Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days” 32. March 2021 “Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up” 33. March 2021 “Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.” 34. April 2021 “Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.” 35. April 2021 “Any wisdom on limited v9 fsd beta release ? - Probably two weeks” 36. April 2021 “Gating factor is achieving & proving higher safety with pure vision than with vision+radar. We are almost there. FSD Beta V9.0 will blow your mind.” 37. April 2021 “True. Anyone paying attention to the rate of improvement will realize that Tesla Autopilot/FSD is already superhuman for highway driving & swiftly getting there for city streets.” 38. May 2021 “We had to focus on removing radar & confirming safety. That release goes out next week to US production. Then a week or two to polish pure vision FSD & v9 beta will release. Difference between v8 & v9 is gigantic.” 39. May 2021 “I think we’re maybe a month or two away from wide beta. But these things are hard to predict accurately. The work we had to do for pure vision driving was needed for FSD, so much more progress has been made than it would seem.” 40. May 2021 “Pure vision Autopilot is now rolling out in North America. There will be an update of this production release in 2 weeks, then FSD beta V9.0 (also pure vision) a week later. FSD subscription will be enabled around the same time.” 41. January 2022 “I will be shocked if we don’t achieve FSD safer than a human this year”
mkumpfhuber 2y ago
https://archive.is/GIvtN https://archive.is/GIvtN
TNWin 2y ago
How do you inform your relatives who are fascinated by this feature and use it on the road? I am scared for them, but I dont know how to educate them. I also dont want to come across having an Anti-Musk Bias.
- financetechbro 2y ago
  Why would anyone care about showing an anti musk bias? Not everyone has to like the guy Show your family the articles. Show them the videos of musk promising FSD by 18/19, and somehow it’s still not here in 2024… then you let your family make their own choice. If they want to use FSD and endanger themselves and others then it is out of your control
- ghufran_syed 2y ago
  Why would their safety be affected by future-looking statements? Has Elon Musk ever said that Tesla has now perfected self-driving and that driver attention is not required?

25 points by doener 2y ago

thoronton 2y ago

So Elon is trying to kill the Tesla investors?

bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago

What's the explanation for keeping the hold rating? Some cognitive bias surely.

altacc 2y ago
I imagine that as FSD as perceived by the name has never been delivered that has always been factored into analysts decisions. If it was either suddenly either working as expected, or removed from every Tesla, then I imagine there would be an effect on the rating & share price.
FireBeyond 2y ago
I'd say more "He realizes FSD is nowhere near ready. He also realizes that there is a not-insignificant part of the populace who believe Musk every time he throws another '3-6 months' out to appease people." so from a financial perspective, it still (unfortunately) makes sense, because no-one with any influence is willing to call out the BS.
- bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
  I mean yes, of course I agree with you. I just expected a professional analyst to be less reckless, but maybe I'm just naive.

Rinzler89 2y ago

Why isn't it called Tesla Partial Self Driving? Feels like a lot of the media flak they get is self inflicted from using deceptive marketing terms that don't match the real world capabilities of the systems.

altacc 2y ago
I think because Tesla's marketing is hyperbolic so that they don't sound like other car manufacturers. They've made automation a large part of Tesla's future offering and have not been able to deliver but strong naming makes it looks like they will soon. "Advanced driver assistance system" simply does not sound as sexy or impressive enough for the shareholders. There are other companies with hands-off, eyes-on systems that don't make it a centerpiece of their offering but are steadily overtaking Tesla in quality, range, volume & capabilities. Maybe we need some legal definitions so that marketing speak doesn't cloud the awareness of drivers of what their car is really capable of.
lucianbr 2y ago
Plenty of things are named falsely. It's nothing particular to Tesla, though it does seem they're amongst the best at doing it and making a profit. Why it happens in general? IMHO, not enough negative feedback. People still buy it, both literally and metaphorically.
- Rinzler89 2y ago
  >Plenty of things are named falsely. It's nothing particular to Tesla Yes, I know, but those other sexy consumer products with optimistic branding can't kill people, that's the difference. Let's stop acting like Tesla is just selling AirPods and can be allowed the same marketing leeway as Apple. Even Apple's branding is never that brash and they don't make 3 tonne electric scythes. It's always abut emotion and magic but it never alures to capabilities it can't deliver.

quitit 2y ago

History of Tesla / Musk on FSD. While one can be forgiving to the earlier days, at this stage Musk is certainly aware that he is lying. 1. September 2013 “will be responsible for developing vehicle-level decision-making and lateral and longitudinal control strategies for Tesla’s effort to pioneer fully automated driving” 2. September 2014 Tesla CEO Musk Sees Fully Autonomous Car Ready in Five or Six Years. “They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame.” 3. December 2015 “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.” 4. January 2016 “In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you’re in LA and the car is in NY” 5. June 2016 “I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year” 6. October 2016 “By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.” 7. October 2016 “Tesla drives itself (no human input at all) thru urban streets to highway to streets, then finds a parking spot” https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-teslas https://www.tesla.com/videos/full-self-driving-hardware-all-... 8. October 2016 “When searching for parking, the car reads the signs to see if it is allowed to park there, which is why it skipped the disabled spot” 9. October 2016 “When you want your car to return, tap Summon on your phone. It will eventually find you even if you are on the other side of the country” 10. October 2016 “yes” (in reply to the system being able to understand complicated road signs) 11. October 2016 (video in reference to automated charging) 12. January 2017 Question: “At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from?” Musk’s answer: “3 months maybe, 6 months definitely” 13. January 2017 “The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year.” 14. March 2017 “I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years” 15. May 2017 “Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.” 16. March 2018 “I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.” 17. November 2018 “Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators” 18. January 2019 “We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that.” 19. February 2019 “We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I’m certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year” 20. April 2019 “I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I’d be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)” 21. April 2019 “We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.” 22. May 2019 “We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too” 23. April 2020 “Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown” 24. April 2020 “we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.” 25. July 2020 “I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there’s the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.” 26. October 2020 “FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.” 27. December 2020 “I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.” 28. December 2020 “I’m extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%” 29. January 2021 “Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.” 30. January 2021 “FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021” 31. March 2021 “Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days” 32. March 2021 “Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up” 33. March 2021 “Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.” 34. April 2021 “Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.” 35. April 2021 “Any wisdom on limited v9 fsd beta release ? - Probably two weeks” 36. April 2021 “Gating factor is achieving & proving higher safety with pure vision than with vision+radar. We are almost there. FSD Beta V9.0 will blow your mind.” 37. April 2021 “True. Anyone paying attention to the rate of improvement will realize that Tesla Autopilot/FSD is already superhuman for highway driving & swiftly getting there for city streets.” 38. May 2021 “We had to focus on removing radar & confirming safety. That release goes out next week to US production. Then a week or two to polish pure vision FSD & v9 beta will release. Difference between v8 & v9 is gigantic.” 39. May 2021 “I think we’re maybe a month or two away from wide beta. But these things are hard to predict accurately. The work we had to do for pure vision driving was needed for FSD, so much more progress has been made than it would seem.” 40. May 2021 “Pure vision Autopilot is now rolling out in North America. There will be an update of this production release in 2 weeks, then FSD beta V9.0 (also pure vision) a week later. FSD subscription will be enabled around the same time.” 41. January 2022 “I will be shocked if we don’t achieve FSD safer than a human this year”

mkumpfhuber 2y ago

https://archive.is/GIvtN https://archive.is/GIvtN

TNWin 2y ago

How do you inform your relatives who are fascinated by this feature and use it on the road? I am scared for them, but I dont know how to educate them. I also dont want to come across having an Anti-Musk Bias.

financetechbro 2y ago
Why would anyone care about showing an anti musk bias? Not everyone has to like the guy Show your family the articles. Show them the videos of musk promising FSD by 18/19, and somehow it’s still not here in 2024… then you let your family make their own choice. If they want to use FSD and endanger themselves and others then it is out of your control
ghufran_syed 2y ago
Why would their safety be affected by future-looking statements? Has Elon Musk ever said that Tesla has now perfected self-driving and that driver attention is not required?