The rate of improvement of AI capability is remarkably predictable, while public perception and investor sentiment wildly overshoots and undershoots depending o

The rate of improvement of AI capability is remarkably predictable, while public perception and investor sentiment wildly overshoots and undershoots depending on the animal spirits of the population. Back when GPT-2 was released, you could draw an exponential curve to fit the rate of capability increase in AI over the prior five years. If you extend that curve to today, frontier models are still on that same curve. That underlying rate of improvement isn't useful for predicting if Nvidia will be up or down next week, but it's a pretty strong signal for how things might play out longer term. At some point the exponential growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself, but there's no hint of that yet.