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Could we say that we've reached the "Peak of inflated expectations" on the Gartner hype curve for AI and we're softly entering the "Trough of disillusionment"?

Could we say that we've reached the "Peak of inflated expectations" on the Gartner hype curve for AI and we're softly entering the "Trough of disillusionment"? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle

akira2501 2y ago
Hype is not actually a thing. Hype comes into existence in environments where skepticism and honest engineering have been intentionally removed and obscured. To the extent that there's a "hype cycle" there's probably actually just a "journalism crisis."
- JohnFen 2y ago
  "Hype" is a marketing tactic.
- babypuncher 2y ago
  To put all the blame on journalists seems disingenuous. Tech companies spend a lot of money marketing their newfangled toys to drum up the hype.
  - akira2501 2y ago
    > blame on journalists I wouldn't blame them. I would blame the people who _own_ those outlets. As they're the ones with an actual interest in obscuring the truth. > spend a lot of money marketing their newfangled toys There are lots of short term ideas in the market place. None of them are particularly novel. So, it should be surprising, particularly in the era of the internet, that they still work.
- panarky 2y ago
  The rate of improvement of AI capability is remarkably predictable, while public perception and investor sentiment wildly overshoots and undershoots depending on the animal spirits of the population. Back when GPT-2 was released, you could draw an exponential curve to fit the rate of capability increase in AI over the prior five years. If you extend that curve to today, frontier models are still on that same curve. That underlying rate of improvement isn't useful for predicting if Nvidia will be up or down next week, but it's a pretty strong signal for how things might play out longer term. At some point the exponential growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself, but there's no hint of that yet.
  - akira2501 2y ago
    > rate of improvement of AI capability So are the training costs. > you could draw an exponential curve Once you plot the costs on that curve it becomes obvious that this technology, by itself, is inadequate to achieve the goals stated for it. > growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself So will all the available entropy in the universe. Single ended analyses like this are a cornerstone of the hype machine.
wslh 2y ago
I don't think so, AI is surprising us everyday even if it is far from AGI. I look forward to create short videos in OpenAI Sora...
apatheticonion 2y ago
That's my feeling too. I'd imagine investors are feeling disappointed after billions have poured in and the returns haven't been as amazing as expected. AI does have some genuinely interesting potential applications and we have already seen it disrupt certain fields, it's just a matter of time before those applications persuade investors to come back.
pennybanks 2y ago
peak hype is already over. when people were scared of ai ending humanity or taking all jobs was peek hype. people are already over it and have no expectations besides what we got. unless some new technology or advances or killer feature is made. this hype wont be reached again with this eras ai. i mean even then i dont think itll reach the peek that just passed its more human nature then anything else
ghaff 2y ago
Probably. Doesn't mean there's nothing there but probably means there's an excess of hype. Not a fan of the hype cycle as a research instrument but it does represent the cycle a lot of technologies go through.

akira2501 2y ago

Hype is not actually a thing. Hype comes into existence in environments where skepticism and honest engineering have been intentionally removed and obscured. To the extent that there's a "hype cycle" there's probably actually just a "journalism crisis."

JohnFen 2y ago
"Hype" is a marketing tactic.
babypuncher 2y ago
To put all the blame on journalists seems disingenuous. Tech companies spend a lot of money marketing their newfangled toys to drum up the hype.
- akira2501 2y ago
  > blame on journalists I wouldn't blame them. I would blame the people who _own_ those outlets. As they're the ones with an actual interest in obscuring the truth. > spend a lot of money marketing their newfangled toys There are lots of short term ideas in the market place. None of them are particularly novel. So, it should be surprising, particularly in the era of the internet, that they still work.
panarky 2y ago
The rate of improvement of AI capability is remarkably predictable, while public perception and investor sentiment wildly overshoots and undershoots depending on the animal spirits of the population. Back when GPT-2 was released, you could draw an exponential curve to fit the rate of capability increase in AI over the prior five years. If you extend that curve to today, frontier models are still on that same curve. That underlying rate of improvement isn't useful for predicting if Nvidia will be up or down next week, but it's a pretty strong signal for how things might play out longer term. At some point the exponential growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself, but there's no hint of that yet.
- akira2501 2y ago
  > rate of improvement of AI capability So are the training costs. > you could draw an exponential curve Once you plot the costs on that curve it becomes obvious that this technology, by itself, is inadequate to achieve the goals stated for it. > growth portion of the S-curve will exhaust itself So will all the available entropy in the universe. Single ended analyses like this are a cornerstone of the hype machine.

wslh 2y ago

I don't think so, AI is surprising us everyday even if it is far from AGI. I look forward to create short videos in OpenAI Sora...

apatheticonion 2y ago

That's my feeling too. I'd imagine investors are feeling disappointed after billions have poured in and the returns haven't been as amazing as expected. AI does have some genuinely interesting potential applications and we have already seen it disrupt certain fields, it's just a matter of time before those applications persuade investors to come back.

pennybanks 2y ago

peak hype is already over. when people were scared of ai ending humanity or taking all jobs was peek hype. people are already over it and have no expectations besides what we got. unless some new technology or advances or killer feature is made. this hype wont be reached again with this eras ai. i mean even then i dont think itll reach the peek that just passed its more human nature then anything else

ghaff 2y ago

Probably. Doesn't mean there's nothing there but probably means there's an excess of hype. Not a fan of the hype cycle as a research instrument but it does represent the cycle a lot of technologies go through.