I kind of agree - though I make a distinction between risk and cost in the same way you say 'potential cost' i.e. cost is realized risk. Until the risk material

I kind of agree - though I make a distinction between risk and cost in the same way you say 'potential cost' i.e. cost is realized risk. Until the risk materializes, you don't pay. The base scenario in this case is the classic thanksgiving turkey though - everything is fine until it isn't.