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Talk about a profound misunderstanding of the powers that shape the tech landscape and open consumer wallets. Bundling, convenience, tight integration, and bri

by npunt 2y ago

Talk about a profound misunderstanding of the powers that shape the tech landscape and open consumer wallets. Bundling, convenience, tight integration, and bringing technologies to larger markets are like the most powerful business moves you can make in tech. Making something one tap away instead of four unlocks at least an order of magnitude more engagement and usage.

talldayo 2y ago
I think you are wrong and the lackluster sales of AI-enabled iPhones will prove it. The exact same thing happened with Siri, and was she a system-seller? No, people actually switched phones because Siri was the only assistant you could use. Mandating a one-size-fits-all solution that everyone hates does not automatically make your solution good again. This exact pattern is destined to happen with ChatGPT; the people that want it already use it, and the people that don't care won't be happy about being forced to use a solution that doesn't work for them.
- npunt 2y ago
  Siri was a system seller - The iPhone 4S that Siri was introduced alongside sold 4mm units on the first weekend which was the fastest selling iPhone to date. This was an 'S' update where the body style had not been changed, so the draw of the device was purely related to internals updates and Siri, which was heavily promoted. I don't know how long that sales bump lasted for but I don't think you're correct that Siri wasn't a system seller. Few people switched because of Siri - I'm not sure in practice whether any significant amount of people switched away from iPhone due to Siri, that sounds like something that might be true in niche circles but probably not something that made a dent on the general market of >1 billion people and devices. Even if a million people switch thats a rounding error, and frankly HN is famous for overestimating the techie-ness of the general market. ChatGPT isn't a substitute - ChatGPT is just one way AI tech is articulated. Most people don't like chatbots (see late 2010s hype like Messenger bots that died fast). Most people don't have time to tinker with AI tools to know whether it will help them in their lives and all their little use cases. Integrating AI into existing workflows on iOS will expose it to an order of magnitude more people. If they like the particular use cases it enables, maybe that'll move units. It will require a lot of user education in the form of marketing to get people to see these capabilities, because again the general market isn't tinkering with AI and doesn't know what it can do. Regardless, your point that any who were interested would use ChatGPT makes little sense because ChatGPT isn't a substitute in practice for general market users, nor the specific use cases Apple showed off where they use AI, due to tight integration, different UX, greater convenience, etc.

by npunt 2y ago

talldayo 2y ago

I think you are wrong and the lackluster sales of AI-enabled iPhones will prove it. The exact same thing happened with Siri, and was she a system-seller? No, people actually switched phones because Siri was the only assistant you could use. Mandating a one-size-fits-all solution that everyone hates does not automatically make your solution good again. This exact pattern is destined to happen with ChatGPT; the people that want it already use it, and the people that don't care won't be happy about being forced to use a solution that doesn't work for them.

npunt 2y ago
Siri was a system seller - The iPhone 4S that Siri was introduced alongside sold 4mm units on the first weekend which was the fastest selling iPhone to date. This was an 'S' update where the body style had not been changed, so the draw of the device was purely related to internals updates and Siri, which was heavily promoted. I don't know how long that sales bump lasted for but I don't think you're correct that Siri wasn't a system seller. Few people switched because of Siri - I'm not sure in practice whether any significant amount of people switched away from iPhone due to Siri, that sounds like something that might be true in niche circles but probably not something that made a dent on the general market of >1 billion people and devices. Even if a million people switch thats a rounding error, and frankly HN is famous for overestimating the techie-ness of the general market. ChatGPT isn't a substitute - ChatGPT is just one way AI tech is articulated. Most people don't like chatbots (see late 2010s hype like Messenger bots that died fast). Most people don't have time to tinker with AI tools to know whether it will help them in their lives and all their little use cases. Integrating AI into existing workflows on iOS will expose it to an order of magnitude more people. If they like the particular use cases it enables, maybe that'll move units. It will require a lot of user education in the form of marketing to get people to see these capabilities, because again the general market isn't tinkering with AI and doesn't know what it can do. Regardless, your point that any who were interested would use ChatGPT makes little sense because ChatGPT isn't a substitute in practice for general market users, nor the specific use cases Apple showed off where they use AI, due to tight integration, different UX, greater convenience, etc.