3 ms·

Small populations make for terrible statistics.

• Aachen 2y ago
  An estimate is better than no clue at all
  • leoedin 2y ago
    To what extent is that true when the cause of the fatalities is the technical design of completely unrelated systems? If one space agency built a rocket which always immediately exploded after launch, and another space agency built one which always worked, you could say the odds of failure for the next astronaut was 50%. But of course the two rockets are essentially unrelated. The chance of success of each rocket is a function of design, engineering process, organisational culture of that organisation. Telling the astronaut strapped to the top of the explody rocket that there's a 50% chance of exploding is actually less help than no estimate. Because actually there's a 100% chance of them exploding. An estimate is only as valuable as the assumptions that drive it.
• bell-cot 2y ago
  Often true. But when that many people die, in that many separate incidents, across a variety of nations & launch vehicles - then the "The risk of spaceflight is still very high" thesis is statistically solid.