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We’ve had articles on China’s impending financial collapse for over two decades at this point. So call me skeptical. I wonder if this is because the US tends t

We’ve had articles on China’s impending financial collapse for over two decades at this point. So call me skeptical. I wonder if this is because the US tends to take a hands-off approach until it’s too late, usually prompting an overcorrection, while China seems at least a bit more proactive. I’m very curious if anyone has credible studies explaining how the Chinese financial sector seems to survive through the persistent claims of impending failure.

defrost 2y ago
Australia owes a considerable portion of national income to China, has done for at least three decades and keeps a close analytical eye on the country. Various Australian PM's have been dismissive towards China for popularist political reasons, aside from that the China watching below the surface tends to be good. In the national press recently (last week) we have: As Beijing quietly heads into economic oblivion while Washington lights up, expect tougher times ahead https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-economic-oblivion-property-market-trade-trap/104128504 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-eco... which outlines how playing the long game has worked to China's advantage for some time, and how the scale of recent turns in fortune make for a ditch that could take time to reach the bottom and time again to climb out.
- nopoolontheroof 2y ago
  > which outlines how playing the long game has worked to China's advantage for some time It makes sense, doesn't it? The US seems to be destroying itself apart from within, and if the US falls or became weaker than China, Australia + NZ and other western countries who deal in the Pacific don't have much of a chance. It's the best possibly strategy China could choose: Just wait.
refurb 2y ago
The difference between now and two decades ago are the economic indicators - they aren’t just going down, they are getting worse and worse each quarter over the last 2 years. Growth has been poor, the economy saw deflation, housing prices and the stock market are losing value, youth unemployment, bank debt, etc. It’s one thing when it’s a transient event and you start to see a recovery, but China hasn’t, even after government intervention. Will the economy “collapse”? Who knows, and what does “collapse” mean anyways? But are the sign suggesting severe economic problems that are likely to have a big consequence on China's future? Seems like it.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- redserk 2y ago
  Sure, just swap the economic indicators people are concerned about. The reporting on the concern of a collapse appear nothing more than “Madlibs” except the words you can’t fill the blank in are “and this is why China’s economic model has failed”. These claims only work so often until a pattern resembling “the boy who cried wild” emerges. In the 2000s, it was speculative banking, effects of currency manipulation, unstable growth In the early 2010s, it was fear of a slowdown due to trade/stock/commodities And in this decade so far, it’s property and a throwback to the 2000s. Searching for “China long term economic problems 20XX” (replace XX with any year) has given me: 2022: COVID-19 restrictions causing impact on the property market (https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-crisis-unfolding-expected https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-c...) 2019: A quarter of bad investment, weakening car sales, increased tariffs from the US: (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/business/china-economic-growth.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/business/china-economic-g...) 2017: More concern about slowing economic growth (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/chinas-economic-problems-are-exactly-why-its-global-influence-is-expanding.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/chinas-economic-problems-are...) 2015: More slowdown (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economic-growth-slows-to-6-9-on-year-in-2015-1453169398 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economic-growth-slows-to-...) 2013: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinas-economy-grows-robust-77-percent-in-2013-but-signs-of-slowdown-emerge/2014/01/20/34733800-81a0-11e3-9dd4-e7278db80d86_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinas-economy-grows-ro... 2011: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/business/global/chinas-economic-engine-shows-signs-of-slowing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/business/global/chinas-ec... 2006: Overproduction, deflation, property value concerns: https://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/03/12/eyeonchina.economy/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/03/12/eyeonchina.economy/i... I struggle to see this as anything more than a multi-decades-long attempt to suggest that China couldn’t possibly eventually become the world’s largest economy.
  - redserk 2y ago
    Too late to edit, but: "boy who cried wild" -> "boy who cried wolf"
nopoolontheroof 2y ago
Do the accusations of China being a currency manipulator perhaps have any bearing on this?

defrost 2y ago

Australia owes a considerable portion of national income to China, has done for at least three decades and keeps a close analytical eye on the country. Various Australian PM's have been dismissive towards China for popularist political reasons, aside from that the China watching below the surface tends to be good. In the national press recently (last week) we have: As Beijing quietly heads into economic oblivion while Washington lights up, expect tougher times ahead https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-economic-oblivion-property-market-trade-trap/104128504 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-23/china-approaching-eco... which outlines how playing the long game has worked to China's advantage for some time, and how the scale of recent turns in fortune make for a ditch that could take time to reach the bottom and time again to climb out.

nopoolontheroof 2y ago
> which outlines how playing the long game has worked to China's advantage for some time It makes sense, doesn't it? The US seems to be destroying itself apart from within, and if the US falls or became weaker than China, Australia + NZ and other western countries who deal in the Pacific don't have much of a chance. It's the best possibly strategy China could choose: Just wait.

refurb 2y ago

The difference between now and two decades ago are the economic indicators - they aren’t just going down, they are getting worse and worse each quarter over the last 2 years. Growth has been poor, the economy saw deflation, housing prices and the stock market are losing value, youth unemployment, bank debt, etc. It’s one thing when it’s a transient event and you start to see a recovery, but China hasn’t, even after government intervention. Will the economy “collapse”? Who knows, and what does “collapse” mean anyways? But are the sign suggesting severe economic problems that are likely to have a big consequence on China's future? Seems like it.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
redserk 2y ago
Sure, just swap the economic indicators people are concerned about. The reporting on the concern of a collapse appear nothing more than “Madlibs” except the words you can’t fill the blank in are “and this is why China’s economic model has failed”. These claims only work so often until a pattern resembling “the boy who cried wild” emerges. In the 2000s, it was speculative banking, effects of currency manipulation, unstable growth In the early 2010s, it was fear of a slowdown due to trade/stock/commodities And in this decade so far, it’s property and a throwback to the 2000s. Searching for “China long term economic problems 20XX” (replace XX with any year) has given me: 2022: COVID-19 restrictions causing impact on the property market (https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-crisis-unfolding-expected https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-slow-motion-financial-c...) 2019: A quarter of bad investment, weakening car sales, increased tariffs from the US: (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/business/china-economic-growth.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/17/business/china-economic-g...) 2017: More concern about slowing economic growth (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/chinas-economic-problems-are-exactly-why-its-global-influence-is-expanding.html https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/chinas-economic-problems-are...) 2015: More slowdown (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economic-growth-slows-to-6-9-on-year-in-2015-1453169398 https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economic-growth-slows-to-...) 2013: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinas-economy-grows-robust-77-percent-in-2013-but-signs-of-slowdown-emerge/2014/01/20/34733800-81a0-11e3-9dd4-e7278db80d86_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/chinas-economy-grows-ro... 2011: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/business/global/chinas-economic-engine-shows-signs-of-slowing.html https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/business/global/chinas-ec... 2006: Overproduction, deflation, property value concerns: https://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/03/12/eyeonchina.economy/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/03/12/eyeonchina.economy/i... I struggle to see this as anything more than a multi-decades-long attempt to suggest that China couldn’t possibly eventually become the world’s largest economy.
- redserk 2y ago
  Too late to edit, but: "boy who cried wild" -> "boy who cried wolf"

nopoolontheroof 2y ago

Do the accusations of China being a currency manipulator perhaps have any bearing on this?