3 ms·

I think peace could have been bought at the cost of neutrality, so sovereignty yes. It's possible of course, but it's also speculative, and the window for that

• cjbgkagh 2y ago
  * once Putin grabbed the Crimea and then the LNR/DNR, the "neutrality" bid fell from the table For a while it looked like Ukraine was turning the tide and they were told then not to negotiate for peace because they didn't have to - wait for an even better negotiating position. So they're told don't negotiate when you're loosing and don't negotiate when you're winning which approximate boils down to don't negotiate. Many things are possible when the alternative is losing a hugely destructive war. I.e. these things were and still remain on the table. Sure, Ukraine's not getting their land back unless they win the war but how likely is that to happen anyway. Knowing Ukraine before the war there was already a huge Ukraine vs Russia ethnic divide that was being made worse by the Ukrainian government passing anti-Russian laws. I see Putins objectives as bringing ethnic Russians back into the fold and establishing a buffer zone. I think if a real Russia-NATO conflict broke out Russia out of necessity would turn to nukes pretty quickly - so I see this Russia-Ukraine war as less of a war of a conquest and more of a way to avoid nuking their Russian Ukrainian cousins if a full scale Russia-NATO war was to break out. They would have less qualms nuking West Ukraine as there are fewer cousins in the west so that would be free to be part of NATO. There is the premise that Russia would not honor such an agreement of neutrality and I don't agree with that premise for a raft of reasons. If the premise that an embolden Putin will go on a concurring rampage I would have to disagree with that as well for another raft of reasons. I don't have time to go into the whole history of it now - but I think an outcome where Ukraine splits in two where West Ukraine is a neutralized entity or absorbed into their surrounding NATO countries would have been and is still possible. Yes that would mean NATO on Russia's boarder but there is already a huge NATO boarder on Russia - that wasn't the problem. I was looking to move to Ukraine in 2020 because I think it's a lovely country and Lviv is a lovely city. Very cheap where I could exist cheaply and spend my time reading books. It's a very corrupt country which does keep prices down but makes business difficult - but since my source of money is foreign I could effectively hide my wealth and avoid attracting attention. I decided against it because I did expect this war to break out as people were not taking Russia's warnings seriously. They had a lot of 'fixer-upper' housing that looked like they were already bombed, the housing was cheap but the problem is if you turn up with a bunch of money to fix the housing you're going catch the attention of the corrupt mobsters. I think Lviv would be an even nicer city if governed by Poland as it has been before in the not so distant past.
  • ben_w 2y ago
    The impression I have is that right now, this war is seen as existential for both Russia, Ukraine, and several EU states. For Ukraine, they need to win by such a severe margin that Russia doesn't even think to lick its wounds, rebuild its strength, and try again. For Russia… well, it's really about Putin. And he dares not show any sign of weakness, which would include ceding the "loss" of the territory which he has officially claimed to recognise as part of Russia. The EU has several ex-Soviet and ex-Warsaw-pact states which openly regard a Russian victory to be an existential threat (as in "we're next"); this would remain the case regardless of what happens with NATO. But NATO does also exist, and even if the USA leaves the UK has a significant arms industry that would come in addition to that of also-EU members like France. I don't think China cares beyond the degree to which it might take focus away from whatever it is they want to do. They seem to be quite content to rapidly ramp up their industrial capacity and general economic output, be the world's factory and hypermarket. The west collectively is, I think, worried about escalation precisely because of the nuclear option. Our leaders want Russia to leave Ukraine in peace and recognise its sovereignty, while also itself remaining stable as it does so… which I don't think is possible, but I'd like it to be (and what do I know anyway, I'm software engineering, not international geopolitics). Personally I suspect that the Russia nuclear arsenal is in a bad state: the main armed forces at the start of the invasion were terrible because they weren't expecting to not need to have to do more than show up, and similar logic applies to nukes. But! 1) One small nuke is enough for a high-altitude EMP to cause severe issues. 2) I wouldn't want to risk an entire country on a dice roll.
  • racional 2y ago
    And they were told then not to negotiate for peace because they didn't have to This is a rather condescending attitude which assumes the Ukrainians have no agency over their situation, and are just doing what their Western puppet masters tell them to do. I was looking to move to Ukraine in 2020 because I think it's a lovely country and Lviv is a lovely city. Very cheap where I could exist cheaply and spend my time reading books. BTW it'd be an even nicer city if it were governed by Poland. Please don't, as you plainly don't respect the country or the people living there. If you'd prefer to live under Polish administration, try Wrocław.