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So many of these models are so unreliable for predicting anything (due to the complexity of the problem, lack of precise enough measurements, computing power, a

So many of these models are so unreliable for predicting anything (due to the complexity of the problem, lack of precise enough measurements, computing power, and 1000 other valid reasons) that as an individual, I'll treat them as tarot reading with some scientific handwaving. And even if this model is great, how can I tell it from all the other garbage articles? I find it strange that when we talk about replication crisis, It's all fair game and everyone sees that "science" is made up of fallible people and corrupt institutions, but when I don't schit my pants because Wired published a post about the siblings (omg, who cares), then suddenly I'm a anti science propagandist. I'm just a regular guy who disagrees with you on something.

borski 2y ago
Nobody is suggesting you “schit [your] pants.” The point of this isn’t to scare you, but to share information about a new model that predicts new effects. Nobody ever said it was “the most accurate model that exists.” But without even looking at or understanding the model (did you?), you’ve already written it off as “tarot reading.” Certainly not the way I’d approach it, especially as the facts of the last decade or so (not models, but actual recorded data) indicate that the globe is definitely warming and sea levels are definitely rising and glaciers are definitely melting. How do I know? Well, data, but also talking to experts in Iceland (as an example). All of them, every single one, without exception, agreed global warming was happening. Not all of them agreed as to why it was happening, but that it was is no longer a question at all. They are out on these glaciers all the time. They have data going back many decades. Time lapses of the changes in the glaciers over the last 50-100 years. There isn’t really a question, anymore, as to whether the globe is warming; it is. What we do about that is entirely a different discussion, as is why it’s happening. But, you know, facts suck in the face of conspiracy theories and “doubt at all costs,” I guess. That’s my main issue with folks who show up and start yelling that we don’t know anything. We do. We know the globe is warming, significantly. Denying that solves nothing.
piva00 2y ago
That's insulting to the work of thousands of people who have been putting their lives into researching how to improve models with more and more detailed information over the last 3-4 decades. A very close friend of mine is a physicist, dedicated his PhD on modeling how clouds form at a molecular level, then his post doctorate studies further into modeling other aerosols, his work improved many general models accuracy. All of those models validate their output with empirical past data, this is not fucking tarot.

borski 2y ago

Nobody is suggesting you “schit [your] pants.” The point of this isn’t to scare you, but to share information about a new model that predicts new effects. Nobody ever said it was “the most accurate model that exists.” But without even looking at or understanding the model (did you?), you’ve already written it off as “tarot reading.” Certainly not the way I’d approach it, especially as the facts of the last decade or so (not models, but actual recorded data) indicate that the globe is definitely warming and sea levels are definitely rising and glaciers are definitely melting. How do I know? Well, data, but also talking to experts in Iceland (as an example). All of them, every single one, without exception, agreed global warming was happening. Not all of them agreed as to why it was happening, but that it was is no longer a question at all. They are out on these glaciers all the time. They have data going back many decades. Time lapses of the changes in the glaciers over the last 50-100 years. There isn’t really a question, anymore, as to whether the globe is warming; it is. What we do about that is entirely a different discussion, as is why it’s happening. But, you know, facts suck in the face of conspiracy theories and “doubt at all costs,” I guess. That’s my main issue with folks who show up and start yelling that we don’t know anything. We do. We know the globe is warming, significantly. Denying that solves nothing.

piva00 2y ago

That's insulting to the work of thousands of people who have been putting their lives into researching how to improve models with more and more detailed information over the last 3-4 decades. A very close friend of mine is a physicist, dedicated his PhD on modeling how clouds form at a molecular level, then his post doctorate studies further into modeling other aerosols, his work improved many general models accuracy. All of those models validate their output with empirical past data, this is not fucking tarot.