4 ms·
The bubble is in the very concept of an "AI company". Even OpenAI is not obviously on a path to profit [0]. I don't see any hope for the many companies whose bu
by lolinder 2y ago
The bubble is in the very concept of an "AI company". Even OpenAI is not obviously on a path to profit [0]. I don't see any hope for the many companies whose business plan is "wrap OpenAI and use it to solve all the problems for sector Y!"
Where we will see returns on LLMs and where we will see useful applications aren't in AI companies, they will be in established players integrating these tools into their existing platforms. This isn't like past tech advances that have led to widespread disruption as established players failed to keep up. For one thing, the established players are quite obviously determined to keep up this time and are jumping on LLMs if anything faster than it's worth.
For another, it's not obvious to me that AI by itself can be a product. AI solutions need data to be useful, and the only people who have the data needed to solve the problems that exist that exist in sector Y is the established players.
So yes, I think there's a bubble, and it's going to pop. But that doesn't mean we won't see advances in the tools.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41058616 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41058616
- soared 2y agoIMo that’s kind of like saying cloud servers aren’t a product. Tons of companies need servers, but nobody wants to manage that. AI is similar in my mind, many companies will want (insert some use case for llms) but don’t want to manage it.
- lolinder 2y agoI'm not saying every random company is going to manage its own LLMs. I'm saying that the existing software solutions for any given industry are going to adapt and implement LLMs in their existing solutions. Github with copilot is a good example of what I'm talking about—new companies trying to be the software development LLM company don't really stand a chance of beating out GitHub. The same dynamic is playing out in every industry right now, and companies that are founded to be the AI solution for a given industry will not unseat the established players.
- randcraw 2y agoUnlike cloud servers, AI isn't embedded into the cost of doing business (pretty much anywhere). Until it's essential it's not going to earn the kind of ROI that's needed to continue the current investment rate.