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Everyone seems to say it will be done by AI! I don't understand this thing where people know the future before it's been proven to happen. It's wrong. It's a '
by ajkjk 2y ago
Everyone seems to say it will be done by AI!
I don't understand this thing where people know the future before it's been proven to happen. It's wrong. It's a 'maybe' at best.
Not too long ago, the near future was supposed to have self-serving cars everywhere and that is still hobbling along instead.
- Zambyte 2y agoLanguage models have been able to spit out CRUD apps for a while now. The "maybe" is not about technical limitations, it's about social and economic forces. In contrast, we don't have flying cars at all due to limits in our current technology.
- georgeburdell 2y agoHave you personally used one to make a CRUD app? I use it to generate scripts to parse some dataset from time to time, but that’s about it
- jstanley 2y agoWe do have flying cars, but we call them helicopters and they're very expensive to operate.
- ben_w 2y agoWe also have human-sized quadcopers with similar (identical?) fly-by-wire control as toy drones. Add "legal obligations" and the "cost of a pilot license" to the list.
- robben1234 2y agoThe pilot license is the largest obstacle to mass adoption, not even the price, in my opinion. For fixed wing private flying you are looking at at least hundred hours fully dedicated to new knowledge and skills at an expensive rate. That's assuming you are proficient at learning and able-bodied enough to pass medical. Unlike driving, when flying you can't just safely pull off to shoulder and stop to figure out whatever problem you are having. So there's a lot effort spent on ensuring whoever is flying is able to prevent known issues and handle emergencies in a non-tragic way.
- jstanley 2y agoA microlight licence is available with only 25 hours of tuition, although getting even 25 hours has been very difficult this year due to the bad weather.
- TillE 2y agoI wish I could remember the names, but there have been a couple attempts at AI services which try to turn GitHub issues into pull requests. Their success rate is dismal. The vast majority of development work isn't creating slightly modified boilerplate.
- Zambyte 2y agoYou are moving the goal post away from "basic CRUD-development" (direct quote).
- gooosle 2y agoReally? Language models can spit out entire CRUD apps with UI, DB, auth/z, constraints/validation? More like 'language models can kinda build 5% of a CRUD app somewhat correctly sometimes'. Would love to be proven wrong tho.
- Zambyte 2y ago> Language models can spit out entire CRUD apps with UI, DB, auth/z, constraints/validation? Yes. Claude 3.5 Sonnet is able to do those things when you ask for them.
- oidar 2y agoWhich language model are you using? I'd like to buy a subscription.
- Zambyte 2y agoClaude 3.5 Sonnet. I use it through Kagi Ultimate.
- oidar 2y agoI also subscribe to Kagi! I do have a regualr subscription to Anthropic, for the project features and being able to upload files for analysis. What's your workflow? I may be doing something wrong and would love for some relief.
- wiseowise 2y ago> Not too long ago, the near future was supposed to have self-serving cars everywhere and that is still hobbling along instead. Said who, exactly? A bunch of media websites that try to catch a hype?
- moralestapia 2y agoHave you heard of this guy named Elon Musk? Uber, the ride-hailing app? They've been claiming this for at least 10 years, if not more.
- ajkjk 2y agoa thousand posts on this website, for one.
- theragra 2y agoSelf driving cars are not working in many places due to political and social forces, not technological. They are already safer then human in cities with a good weather and orderly road conditions.
- cratermoon 2y ago> good weather and orderly road conditions So, almost never when it really matters.
- DougN7 2y agoIt’s that last 5% that always gets you in the end.
- bugbuddy 2y agoAGIs, what you would need for really replacing people, are not working at all because people and things that AGIs interact with make bad illogical statements and don’t always use Lean programming language.
- slowmovintarget 2y agoAGIs are not working at all because they don't actually exist yet. It's not a matter of an AGI system getting it wrong, there is no AGI system. There are only multi-modal ML systems, which are not the same.
- ajkjk 2y agoNo, the tech isn't there either.
- Aloha 2y agoAs soon as AI can understand organizational business logic lol - which considering how well read and educated humans struggle with that, I'm not too concerned.
- Nexxxeh 2y agoThat's optimistic. I think it'll get used in a lot of places long before it's fit for the given purpose.
- trte9343r4 2y agoIt already happened, at least for me. Dealing with AI is much easier than handling subcontractors. Also AI scales my time much better, than contractors.
- azemetre 2y agoLow code solutions are already in this market and they are a pain to maintain and migrate away from. I can’t imagine AI solutions being better with current languages unless a new language is made to assist in this.
- tim333 2y agoThe trend is kind of inevitable even if the timing can be off by a decade or two. Like with self driving cars, they are delayed but Waymo is doing 50k driverless rides a week and expanding. And apparently the latest Tesla FSD is a big improvement if still not robotaxi safe yet.
- ajkjk 2y agosure, but it's ten years later and not as good as everyone said. It's not like driverless is "theoretically impossible". But when people confidently they know what the near future is going to be, they're just... wrong. And it's really tedious having to deal with that kind of attitude when we're all here for productive conversation.