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The same can be applied to a stock market. I am a big fan of looking into historical data, and I was using WealthLab for quite a while. One of the funniest thi
by RomanPushkin 2y ago
The same can be applied to a stock market. I am a big fan of looking into historical data, and I was using WealthLab for quite a while.
One of the funniest things is when you find "strategy" that performs best over one year by making from 50 to 100 deals. But don't get fooled, it's just a random parameters, and when applied to the next year or years, you won't get these results, of course.
So you're getting reliable results only when you can reproduce your success (no matter what it is) consistently.
- deliveryboyman 2y agoThis does not speak to the randomness of markets. Only the ever changing nature of them.
- eru 2y agoIn some sense, randomness is a modelling choice, not a statement about the underlying mechanism. Eg we wouldn't be able to tell whether stock prices are truly random (according to some distribution), or governed by a cryptographically secure pseudo random number generator. Another example: quantum mechanics is a fully deterministic theory. It's even linear, so we don't even get deterministic chaos like from Newtonian billiard balls or the Newtonian three body problem. But some popular interpretations of quantum mechanics like the Copenhagen Interpretation decide that they need to add randomness to make sense of QM's predictions. In contrast, some other interpretations like Many Worlds leave QM deterministic.