It appears to me that with hard drives the Thailand flood and Japanese earthquake are causing us to lose a generation. Thus instead of going from 1TB mobile dr

It appears to me that with hard drives the Thailand flood and Japanese earthquake are causing us to lose a generation. Thus instead of going from 1TB mobile drives to 2TB drives, we're having another year of them selling 1TB drives. This will make flash more competitive as it cuts price per GB in half or by a third over that same period.... but I think it is a temporary effect. Innovation in spinning rust has not slowed down in the labs, I presume, so I think that when the manufacturing sector is back up to speed they'll be pushing out the same innovations in 2013 they would have otherwise, and possibly skip a generation. Which is not to say that the writing isn't still on the wall for spinning rust... eventually Flash will catch up in price/GB, though volumes will explode even when its still twice as expensive as the demand will ramp up dramatically.