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AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy
- skeskinen 2y agoI'm not an expert on the subject, but this seems like a very insightful post. I especially liked the part about forecast skill analysis being impossible for tail risks.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- AndrewKemendo 2y agoI’ve totally given up trying to have this debate, and everyone else senior in AI in practice seems to feel the same People want scary powerful terminator/skynet like AI cause, like dictators, they think democratized advanced technology will give them the power they always wanted to live the dream - despite what we know of history Ok fine. Since we can’t agree to limit ourselves, lets go as fast as we can and see what happens. That’s what I’m doing
- tim333 2y agoProbably the way to go. There seems limited risk while we are still able to turn the power off. Also I think people have seen enough Terminator movies to not connect present LLMs to nuclear launch systems.
- AndrewKemendo 2y agoI wouldn’t make that last assumption