5 ms·
The math of the business model doesn’t really pass the napkin test. How many celebrities and sublebrities do you need to be actively booking 10s to 100s of vide
by rhplus 2y ago
The math of the business model doesn’t really pass the napkin test. How many celebrities and sublebrities do you need to be actively booking 10s to 100s of videos per day to get enough revenue to justify a $1bn valuation? Perhaps that means $100m annual revenue. If Cameo is generously getting say $50/booking, that means 2 million videos per year! That’s 500 washed up sitcom stars each doing 10 happy birthday videos every single day for a year!
- saulpw 2y agoIf they get 5000 sitcom stars doing 10 videos/day for 200 days/year and Cameo gets $10 each, that's 5000*200*10*10 = $100m. Those numbers seem at least napkin reasonable to me..
- itake 2y ago200 * 10 = 2,000 videos per year per celeb. Is there really 2k customers each year every year trying to book a support character from a 1990s tv show?
- moralestapia 2y agoI see the demand but not the supply. Most famous/rich celebrities would a 9-to-5 type of job, lol. For them to be worth it, it would have to be like 1-10k per video, which the average person wouldn't pay at all. Exhibit A, they're broke. But I do appreciate their short life, I got a real fun video from Flavor Flav out of it :D.
- realityfactchex 2y agoMaybe not today, but get distribution of that back catalog right and everybody's happy? To great extent, people watch what is promoted to them as a trend, no?
- bruce511 2y ago5000 sitcom stars? I'm not in the US but are there really that many? What's the qualification here? Some guy who had a random walk-on in season 5 episode 3? And you're thinking that 2000 people a year know about this random dudette? And will pay $50 for a cameo? If you think this is reasonable then do I have an opportunity for you. (And even if it was remotely possible thats income, not dividends.. )
- Bayaz 2y agoYes, absolutely. 5,000 sounds low. This includes reality TV “stars.” All sorts of niche celebrities are (or were) on there.
- bruce511 2y agoI get the "15 minutes of fame" thing, but it passes quickly. I mean, sure, the current Survivor season might spit out 20 people who might make a few people happy this year. But is there really a market for Jane from season 8? Like a couple hundred a day? Perhaps I'm wrong and all kinds of people are plunking down $50 for birthday messages all day long. (So much for a depressed economy...) Clearly I'm not the target market and most ideas seem dumb when you can't imagine using a service yourself. Maybe there are 50000 customers a day dropping this cash.
- al_borland 2y agoBut are those D tier “celebrities” getting 10 requests per day? I really have no idea, but I can’t imagine people lining up to spend $145+ on birthday wishes from Kiaya, from MTV’s Teen Mom. Or is this why so many people are in debt?
- Bayaz 2y agoSome do very well, though I don’t know if any single person is consistently getting 10 per day. I used to follow the 90 Day Fiance subreddit and folks were always linking to videos from the more well-liked cast members. Several have over $100,000 in revenue if the sites tracking these sort of things can be believed.
- shotnothing 2y ago> if the sites tracking these sort of things can be believed I really don't think they can
- dyauspitr 2y ago5000 is a pittance. Even if you add up all the current players in major professional sports in just the US, that number is around 15,000.
- adolph 2y agoAcquiring a long tail of well known faces performing known procedures might make for an interesting training corpus. The resulting weights could make 100's of videos every day and probably do better i18n to capture celebrity arbitrage like how US actor David Hasselhoff is a musician in Germany. It could have gone well past there--imagine a digital photo frame where Jed from the Beverly Hillbillies (replace with your favorite) tells you about today's weather and stocks.
- elphinstone 2y agoI agree it doesn't add up and the valuation is silly. But I could see the model expanding to Asia, with kpop, jpop, and Chinese idols. But a local rival would have massive advantages and may already exist, idk. My point is just there's a bigger pool of semicelebs than US tv actors.
- iamthemonster 2y agoMy young daughter enjoys some short videos on Facebook of a nice guy who just enjoys nature. He's not at all famous, probably has followers in the low tens of thousands I think, but I paid about $25 to get him to do a video for her. I wonder how much of their revenue is actually from a much larger number of not-really-at-all-famous people rather than sitcom stars.
- philistine 2y agoHe probably undersold himself. That type of interaction is worth way more, to the point that savvy internet celebs really don't charge directly for those type of interactions. They keep them for their patrons.
- ffsm8 2y ago> How many celebrities and sublebrities do you need to be actively booking 10s to 100s of videos per day to get enough revenue to justify a $1bn valuation 1. The limiter are the consumers, not the celebs.
- philistine 2y agoCelebs at some point need to do the celeb stuff. Movies, TV shows, writing books about dragons and incest. You know, the reason why they're known. 10 videos a day every single day on average mean some celebs are expected to do way more than that. That's unsustainable for a person.
- ffsm8 2y agoAren't the existence of streamers prove that they don't, really? They only need to be available and broadcast their lives. Strange society we've become