5 ms·

You don’t think the west has stockpiles?

by Carrok 2y ago

perihelions 2y ago
The US burned half of its stockpile in the last four years[0], as a (politically popular!) counter to inflation. It's as the parent comment says: we're presently infected by short-term thinking, exchanging gigantic risks in the future for small benefits in the present. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)#/media/File:US_Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve.webp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(U...
- mupuff1234 2y ago
  A large surge in inflation seems like a decent time to use the stockpiles - it's not like they can't be replenished. Especially given that the US is an exporter of energy.
- bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
  Damn I hate it when it turns out a Republican talking point had some truth to it.
- qwytw 2y ago
  Wouldn't even at peak levels (700mil) the total reserve be enough for just ~35 days or so? Of course that's still a lot but I'm not sure if 300 million barrels over a couple of years could affect prices that much. Also it kind of made sense to sell when the price was so high and fill it up later.
  - darth_avocado 2y ago
    If its 35 days at 700 mil, it's 15 at 300. 35 days doesn't seem like a lot but in case of emergencies, I'll take 35 over 15 any day. You need to give yourselves time to at least react to situations.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > You need to give yourselves time to at least react to situations Our strategic reserves are for low-grade emergencies. For anything minor, the status quo will do. For anything major we’ll re-route civilian supplies. In between, the strategic reserve lets the military increase consumption without raising voters’ gas prices.
  - shakow 2y ago
    > for just ~35 days or so? At full consumption. I'm pretty sure that in circumstances that would lead to the use of the reserverve, oil would be strongly rationed and directed towards hospitals/army/police/logicstics/etc.
    - qwytw 2y ago
      Sure, but US has almost doubled its production since the early 2000s while consumption has actually slightly decreased. So I'd question the need to maintain a very large reserve anymore. IMHO these days using it as an "economic tool" to balance supply/demand would make a lot more.
- sudosysgen 2y ago
  The US is a net petroleum exporter now, so using the stockpile for price stabilization is the right call. Using it to stabilize prices is actually good long term thinking, because a quicker reduction in inflation will have far more long term benefits than the short term optics of liquidating a ""strategic asset"". The only risk of a strategic petroleum shortage in the US would be as the result of an attack on US infrastructure, and I don't see how the petroleum reserves wouldn't be the first target. So there isn't any strategic risk in reducing the stockpile. When it was created, the US was a massive petroleum importer - it was a strategic asset but not anymore.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  We’re the largest producer of petroleum on the planet. China is not.
  - toomuchtodo 2y ago
    Conversely, China is the largest producer of EVs on the planet, and will reach peak oil demand this year or next due to their EV manufacturing ramp rate. China is playing to win the future, and it’s clear in how they operate.
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > China is the largest producer of EVs on the planet, and will reach peak oil demand this year or next due to their EV manufacturing ramp rate Sure. They have a strategic incentive to electrify their military. In the meantime, they need stockpiles.
      - toomuchtodo 2y ago
        Maybe we’re talking past each other. China isn’t electrifying their military, they are electrifying all light transportation. This destroys demand for oil, slowly working towards negating it as a point of leverage during a geopolitical conflict. You can’t embargo, blockade, or use economic sanctions on an input a country doesn’t need. Oil demand destruction, EVs, renewables, are all national economic security issues. They are stockpiling, decoupling, and becoming self sufficient internally to be prepared for an isolationist period. We can wildly speculate why, but it’s very clear that they do not want to be beholden to other nation state economic counterparties.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > it’s very clear that they do not want to be beholden to other nation state economic counterparties Days of stockpiles aren’t a strategic economic buffer. They’re tactical. You’re correct that electrification reduces one of China’s geostrategic vulnerabilities. I’m extending that to its military; stockpiles alone won’t defeat a blockade.
- dghlsakjg 2y ago
  Keep in mind that the US is the worlds largest oil producer right now, and exports ~30% of production. North America as whole has a serious oil output that massively over-serves what is needed by the continent. Canada, arguably the closest US ally, is number 4 for oil output, and Mexico is 11th. Keeping the reserves full doesn't really serve a purpose when you are capable of producing far more than you need.
tivert 2y ago
> You don’t think the west has stockpiles? A few small and badly run ones. IIRC, the US's medical stockpile was already bare at the start of COVID, and I recall reading controversy about if it should be replenished at all when its potential worth had literally just been proven. The petroleum stockpile seems like it's mostly used for electioneering (e.g. release stockpiles in the run up to an election to lower gas prices to help incumbents). I'm not aware of any other ones, like for food and raw materials besides petroleum.
rhplus 2y ago
Cheese and helium, what else do we need? https://www.farmlinkproject.org/stories-and-features/cheese-caves-and-food-surpluses-why-the-u-s-government-currently-stores-1-4-billion-lbs-of-cheese https://www.farmlinkproject.org/stories-and-features/cheese-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Helium_Reserve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Helium_Reserve
- observationist 2y ago
  At least the parties at the end will be entertaining.
Gud 2y ago
Not really, no. Since the end of the Cold War, my home country Sweden dismantled all it stock piles.

You don’t think the west has stockpiles?

by Carrok 2y ago

You don’t think the west has stockpiles?

The US burned half of its stockpile in the last four years[0], as a (politically popular!) counter to inflation. It's as the parent comment says: we're presently infected by short-term thinking, exchanging gigantic risks in the future for small benefits in the present. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)#/media/File:US_Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve.webp https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(U...

mupuff1234 2y ago
A large surge in inflation seems like a decent time to use the stockpiles - it's not like they can't be replenished. Especially given that the US is an exporter of energy.
bdjsiqoocwk 2y ago
Damn I hate it when it turns out a Republican talking point had some truth to it.
qwytw 2y ago
Wouldn't even at peak levels (700mil) the total reserve be enough for just ~35 days or so? Of course that's still a lot but I'm not sure if 300 million barrels over a couple of years could affect prices that much. Also it kind of made sense to sell when the price was so high and fill it up later.
- darth_avocado 2y ago
  If its 35 days at 700 mil, it's 15 at 300. 35 days doesn't seem like a lot but in case of emergencies, I'll take 35 over 15 any day. You need to give yourselves time to at least react to situations.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > You need to give yourselves time to at least react to situations Our strategic reserves are for low-grade emergencies. For anything minor, the status quo will do. For anything major we’ll re-route civilian supplies. In between, the strategic reserve lets the military increase consumption without raising voters’ gas prices.
- shakow 2y ago
  > for just ~35 days or so? At full consumption. I'm pretty sure that in circumstances that would lead to the use of the reserverve, oil would be strongly rationed and directed towards hospitals/army/police/logicstics/etc.
  - qwytw 2y ago
    Sure, but US has almost doubled its production since the early 2000s while consumption has actually slightly decreased. So I'd question the need to maintain a very large reserve anymore. IMHO these days using it as an "economic tool" to balance supply/demand would make a lot more.
sudosysgen 2y ago
The US is a net petroleum exporter now, so using the stockpile for price stabilization is the right call. Using it to stabilize prices is actually good long term thinking, because a quicker reduction in inflation will have far more long term benefits than the short term optics of liquidating a ""strategic asset"". The only risk of a strategic petroleum shortage in the US would be as the result of an attack on US infrastructure, and I don't see how the petroleum reserves wouldn't be the first target. So there isn't any strategic risk in reducing the stockpile. When it was created, the US was a massive petroleum importer - it was a strategic asset but not anymore.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
We’re the largest producer of petroleum on the planet. China is not.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  Conversely, China is the largest producer of EVs on the planet, and will reach peak oil demand this year or next due to their EV manufacturing ramp rate. China is playing to win the future, and it’s clear in how they operate.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > China is the largest producer of EVs on the planet, and will reach peak oil demand this year or next due to their EV manufacturing ramp rate Sure. They have a strategic incentive to electrify their military. In the meantime, they need stockpiles.
    - toomuchtodo 2y ago
      Maybe we’re talking past each other. China isn’t electrifying their military, they are electrifying all light transportation. This destroys demand for oil, slowly working towards negating it as a point of leverage during a geopolitical conflict. You can’t embargo, blockade, or use economic sanctions on an input a country doesn’t need. Oil demand destruction, EVs, renewables, are all national economic security issues. They are stockpiling, decoupling, and becoming self sufficient internally to be prepared for an isolationist period. We can wildly speculate why, but it’s very clear that they do not want to be beholden to other nation state economic counterparties.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > it’s very clear that they do not want to be beholden to other nation state economic counterparties Days of stockpiles aren’t a strategic economic buffer. They’re tactical. You’re correct that electrification reduces one of China’s geostrategic vulnerabilities. I’m extending that to its military; stockpiles alone won’t defeat a blockade.
dghlsakjg 2y ago
Keep in mind that the US is the worlds largest oil producer right now, and exports ~30% of production. North America as whole has a serious oil output that massively over-serves what is needed by the continent. Canada, arguably the closest US ally, is number 4 for oil output, and Mexico is 11th. Keeping the reserves full doesn't really serve a purpose when you are capable of producing far more than you need.

tivert 2y ago

> You don’t think the west has stockpiles? A few small and badly run ones. IIRC, the US's medical stockpile was already bare at the start of COVID, and I recall reading controversy about if it should be replenished at all when its potential worth had literally just been proven. The petroleum stockpile seems like it's mostly used for electioneering (e.g. release stockpiles in the run up to an election to lower gas prices to help incumbents). I'm not aware of any other ones, like for food and raw materials besides petroleum.

rhplus 2y ago

Cheese and helium, what else do we need? https://www.farmlinkproject.org/stories-and-features/cheese-caves-and-food-surpluses-why-the-u-s-government-currently-stores-1-4-billion-lbs-of-cheese https://www.farmlinkproject.org/stories-and-features/cheese-... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Helium_Reserve https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Helium_Reserve

observationist 2y ago
At least the parties at the end will be entertaining.

Gud 2y ago

Not really, no. Since the end of the Cold War, my home country Sweden dismantled all it stock piles.