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US economic growth increased last quarter to a healthy 2.8% annual rate
- dinkblam 2y agoso 2.8% is "healthy" for the US, but 5.3% for China is a "disaster"...
- washedup 2y agoThe countries operate very differently, so yes, it's possible to view it that way and have it be a logical statement.
- brigadier132 2y agoIt all depends on the size you are starting at and your population size.
- passwordoops 2y agoAnd expectations. If the US was coming off a year of, say 3.2% growth, or if the fed predicted 3.1% (I love how they never include margins of error) then this wouldn't be such a rosy picture.
- robotcapital 2y agoI don't know if the Fed themselves gives margins of error, but the GDPNow indicator the Atlanta Fed puts out (https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow) also includes ranges for industry forecasts. In this case it seems we were above even the most optimistic expectations.
- verdverm 2y agoI'm not sure how much people really trust the numbers coming out of Authoritarian countries. There is also individual context to account for. Healthy metrics for a 20yo vs 80yo are very different
- washedup 2y agoThere are a lot of interesting details embedded in this number, specifically how strong consumer spending was. I still have concerns about dwindling savings and increasing credit balances, as well as historically high APRs, but will worry about that another day.
- vidanay 2y ago> historically high APRs Interest rates are NOT historically high. In fact they are basically right at "average". The rates for the last five years were historically LOW.
- jeffbee 2y agoI think credit card APRs specifically are off the charts. Other forms of credit (mortgages etc) not so much. Credit card issuers are commanding a 15% margin over prime rate, while charge-off i.e. the risk to the credit issuer is around 3%, near all-time lows. In other words credit issuers are raking in record unearned profits. This FRED series only goes back 30 years but if you look at the Fed Statistical Abstract consumer credit tables, APRs in 1985 were < 19% and in 1980 were < 18% so 21% and higher are very exceptional. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TERMCBCCALLNS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TERMCBCCALLNS
- washedup 2y agoCredit Card APRs, specifically, is what I was mentioning. They are historically high.
- vidanay 2y agoHoly shit...I hadn't realized credit card rates have become that high!
- toomuchtodo 2y agoConsumer is tapped out, economy is flashing yellow warning light and the Fed needs to cut now. Lots of spending currently being driven by Boomers running off of assets and paying cash (~40% of consumer spending), but there is only so much of that. Per the Sahm rule and rising unemployment, we are approaching recession territory and the potential for a self reinforcing consumer demand destruction spiral (people lose jobs, pull back spending, more people lose jobs, even more spending gets pulled back, and so forth). https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/share-of-us-credit-cards-past-due-climbs-to-highest-since-2012 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/share-of-... | https://archive.today/l6ryx https://archive.today/l6ryx https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/2024-q1-large-bank https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/2024-q1-lar... https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/the-fed-needs-to-cut-interest-rates-now https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-24/the-fe... | https://archive.today/xcJP5 https://archive.today/xcJP5 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
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- throwint 2y agoLower interest rates now to create more jobs
- washedup 2y agoMore jobs... and cheaper mortgage rates. Hopefully later this year.
- 15155 2y agoCheaper mortgage rates equal more expensive housing - supply didn't magically increase. Cheaper mortgage rates means institutional capital that was otherwise sitting on the sidelines in T-bills will be deployed directly into that remaining supply.
- HarryHirsch 2y agoJust start building already, 6.8 % for the 30-year fixed is well within historical precedent. High housing prices are a result of asset inflation for a product priced at the margin. Only way around that is to increase supply. (Also consider this: there is nothing more unproductive than real estate - the stupid capital must be forced out of the mattress and into productive ventures.)
- jeffbee 2y agoWhat are we going to do, resurrect dead guys to fill these jobs? Americans are dangerously over-employed at this point.
- lostmsu 2y agoI read the whole article and still did not get if it's the real value growth or nominal.
- wakawaka28 2y agoThis is bullshit. GDP includes government spending, and the government doesn't make anything besides debt.
- jfengel 2y agoApart from the sanitation, medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh water system and public health, of course.