4 ms·

Seems possible, but there are still many sizable voting blocs that will endure a lot of hardship before they decide to take the dole.

ttyprintk 2y ago
I laughed at first, because: - whites without a college degree benefit most from anti-poverty programs - and ACA Among the 65-and-older group, who receive social security, non-whites represent 1/3, then 1/4, then 1/5 as you ascend by decade. It’s possible non-college whites, as a bloc, don’t know this. Put another way, if UBI redistributes those programs, they might gain some awareness of their best interests. Or, UBI could be phrased in a way that convinces them it hurts the right people instead of them.
- carlmr 2y ago
  >Among the 65-and-older group, who receive social security, non-whites represent 1/3, then 1/4, then 1/5 as you ascend by decade. What is the base-rate here though? Is it vastly different than for the general population? Otherwise this sounds like a base-rate fallacy, to say anybody is "benefitting more".
  - ttyprintk 2y ago
    It's pretty straightforward who qualifies in 2024 for the basic income guaranteed by social security.[0] 76% of recipients are white, compared to 60% of the population. [1] I assume someone who's collected social security for 15 years has a 80% chance of being white [2], but it's probably higher because I don't know the rates non-white seniors qualify for social security. I think that's what you're getting at. Social security will remain solvent until 2034, which is the first year Gen-X will start retiring. The age bracket for people who are now 48 is closest to 50/50 white. When they retire, in 2041, the entire nation will coincidentally pass 50/50. I think those stats are enough for the GOP to abandon social security in the long term. [0] The Social Security Administration https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/projections/populations.html#tableBeneficiaries2024 https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/projections/populations.html... [1] Pew https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/30/most-common-age-among-us-racial-ethnic-groups/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/30/most-comm... [2] The Atlantic, 2018 https://archive.ph/EZ3ds https://archive.ph/EZ3ds

ttyprintk 2y ago

I laughed at first, because: - whites without a college degree benefit most from anti-poverty programs - and ACA Among the 65-and-older group, who receive social security, non-whites represent 1/3, then 1/4, then 1/5 as you ascend by decade. It’s possible non-college whites, as a bloc, don’t know this. Put another way, if UBI redistributes those programs, they might gain some awareness of their best interests. Or, UBI could be phrased in a way that convinces them it hurts the right people instead of them.

carlmr 2y ago
>Among the 65-and-older group, who receive social security, non-whites represent 1/3, then 1/4, then 1/5 as you ascend by decade. What is the base-rate here though? Is it vastly different than for the general population? Otherwise this sounds like a base-rate fallacy, to say anybody is "benefitting more".
- ttyprintk 2y ago
  It's pretty straightforward who qualifies in 2024 for the basic income guaranteed by social security.[0] 76% of recipients are white, compared to 60% of the population. [1] I assume someone who's collected social security for 15 years has a 80% chance of being white [2], but it's probably higher because I don't know the rates non-white seniors qualify for social security. I think that's what you're getting at. Social security will remain solvent until 2034, which is the first year Gen-X will start retiring. The age bracket for people who are now 48 is closest to 50/50 white. When they retire, in 2041, the entire nation will coincidentally pass 50/50. I think those stats are enough for the GOP to abandon social security in the long term. [0] The Social Security Administration https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/projections/populations.html#tableBeneficiaries2024 https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/projections/populations.html... [1] Pew https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/30/most-common-age-among-us-racial-ethnic-groups/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/30/most-comm... [2] The Atlantic, 2018 https://archive.ph/EZ3ds https://archive.ph/EZ3ds