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My pet theory for why fertility is falling is more sophisticated than the likely incorrect theories that the economy is bad or people are struggling economicall

My pet theory for why fertility is falling is more sophisticated than the likely incorrect theories that the economy is bad or people are struggling economically. My guess is that humans want to have children who belong to the same socioeconomic class as themselves or higher. Mate preferences in humans is strongly driven by socioeconomics, so I think this is plausible. In the world we live in today, it is extremely difficult for anyone to guarantee this for their children. In today's world, across countries, there is so much flux - many children are at a higher income percentile than their parents, and an equal number are at a lower income percentile. There is so much risk in having children. So people choose to have the one child who they put all their resources in. Or no child at all, because they think they will create a child who is at a lower income percentile. This theory sidesteps counterargument that we are better than the past in the absolute sense. It's a relative theory. Humans want their progeny to be relatively better than themselves. I would love to see data on this.

jredwards 2y ago
As someone with kids, while I certainly worry about the world they will live in and their prospects in it, I absolutely don't think I can predict what it will look like in 20 years when it matters. The idea that they might be less prosperous than me when they're grown never entered my mind when deciding to have children. Whether or not I could afford to raise them absolutely did.
- abdullahkhalids 2y ago
  Much of these primal decisions like mate selection or desire for children happens in the unconscious part of our brains. Hard to check validity for theories like this without good statistical data.
jemmyw 2y ago
I have a different pet theory. I think people, women in particular, don't want to have kids as much as was believed by any kind of biological drive. People want sex of course. So once the choice is there to not have kids, a lot more people will avoid having them. My parents generation could make that choice, but there was quite a lot of social pressure to start a family. As that social pressure has eased, people are making different choices. I think the arguments made about economic factors by people putting it off are actually just a rationalisation to explain away why they aren't conforming to expectations. This would also explain why people who do have kids aren't really having much trouble with it, they just want them, or still fell for social pressure. Or were careless.
- abdullahkhalids 2y ago
  That's a cultural explanation. You are saying that across a wide variety of countries, cultures are all evolving in the same direction. Even isolated North Korea is now below replacement [1]. Well, if different cultures are evolving in the same direction, then there must be another underlying explanation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_North_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_North_Korea
  - jemmyw 2y ago
    Yes! It's not just a cultural explanation, it's the idea that the medical situation of being able to choose is the driver, cultural change is the follower. So it can affect different cultures, even partially cut off ones.
M95D 2y ago
You can express all that in a shorter form: "Hope for a better future".

jredwards 2y ago

As someone with kids, while I certainly worry about the world they will live in and their prospects in it, I absolutely don't think I can predict what it will look like in 20 years when it matters. The idea that they might be less prosperous than me when they're grown never entered my mind when deciding to have children. Whether or not I could afford to raise them absolutely did.

abdullahkhalids 2y ago
Much of these primal decisions like mate selection or desire for children happens in the unconscious part of our brains. Hard to check validity for theories like this without good statistical data.

jemmyw 2y ago

I have a different pet theory. I think people, women in particular, don't want to have kids as much as was believed by any kind of biological drive. People want sex of course. So once the choice is there to not have kids, a lot more people will avoid having them. My parents generation could make that choice, but there was quite a lot of social pressure to start a family. As that social pressure has eased, people are making different choices. I think the arguments made about economic factors by people putting it off are actually just a rationalisation to explain away why they aren't conforming to expectations. This would also explain why people who do have kids aren't really having much trouble with it, they just want them, or still fell for social pressure. Or were careless.

abdullahkhalids 2y ago
That's a cultural explanation. You are saying that across a wide variety of countries, cultures are all evolving in the same direction. Even isolated North Korea is now below replacement [1]. Well, if different cultures are evolving in the same direction, then there must be another underlying explanation. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_North_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_North_Korea
- jemmyw 2y ago
  Yes! It's not just a cultural explanation, it's the idea that the medical situation of being able to choose is the driver, cultural change is the follower. So it can affect different cultures, even partially cut off ones.

M95D 2y ago

You can express all that in a shorter form: "Hope for a better future".